283 
FXUS62 KMHX 181906
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
306 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area on Saturday and stall 
offshore. A coastal trough or coastal low may then develop along
the stalled front early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Thursday...Low stratus lingers over portions of ENC
this afternoon, expected to slowly clear SW to NE through the
rest of today. Weakness in local pressure gradient leads to 
light and variable winds with the Crystal Coast seabreeze 
circulation the dominant wind feature. MaxTs low 80s SWern 
inland zones, mid to upper 70s beaches and NEern zones thanks to
increased cloud cover.

Tonight will bring calming winds and clearing skies. Low level 
moisture advected in off the Atlantic by the afternoon's 
seabreeze will open door for fog development due to the rad 
cooling and calm winds. Expect fog to show up first along the 
HWY17 corridor and then expand through the overnight. MinTs in 
low to mid 60s most, upper 60s to low 70s beaches. Fog could be
dense at times, impacting the early morning commute Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...Fog inland to start the day, scouring
out mid morning. Another day with light winds eventually coming
out of the east and some high clouds overhead. Mostly clear
skies should allow it to get pretty warm for all locales, highs
in the upper 80s inland and low 80s for beaches. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Warmer weather pattern to close out the work week

 - Unsettled weather potentially returns late in the weekend or 
next week

Weak upper level troughing is forecast to reside over the Southern 
Appalachians through Saturday, then get kicked out to the east on 
Sunday as a more substantial trough develops over the central U.S. 
Multiple shortwaves are then forecast to eject out of that trough 
and move across the Southeast U.S. next week. Guidance is in very 
good agreement through this weekend, then begins to show substantial 
differences next week.

At the surface, high pressure overhead on Friday will shift east by 
Saturday as a more notable high builds in across New England. 
Meanwhile, low pressure is forecast to develop offshore well to the 
south of ENC by this weekend. The tightening gradient between the 
high to the north and the low to the south will setup a modestly 
strong northeasterly flow regime once again across the Carolinas. 
Within this regime, temperatures are expected to take a brief drop 
back down after the very warm temperatures on Friday. 

Late in the weekend and into early next week, guidance continues to 
suggest the potential for low pressure to the south to shift north 
in the general direction of ENC. While the signal for a coastal low 
is still present in the latest guidance, there has been a notably 
weaker trend seen. The pattern still bears watching, but for now at 
least, the trend has been towards a weaker low to move through. In 
fact, it may be more of an inland-advancing coastal trough vs a weak 
coastal low. Either way, an increase in moisture and instability 
overlapped with the trough or low should support a modest increase 
in the chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially along the 
coast. 

Towards the middle of next week, medium range guidance differs 
substantially. The point of contention appears to be focused around 
the development, and evolution, of a cutoff low east of the Great 
Plains. This type of pattern typically carries lower predictability 
at longer ranges. For now, then, a blended guidance approach 
suggests warming temperatures and a continued potential for 
unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Friday morning/... 
As of 250 PM Thursday...MVFR ceilings continue where low 
stratus deck lingers, with VFR conditions elsewhere as sct/bkn 
stratocu lifts above 3kft. Tonight skies clear up and winds 
become calm, leading to a fog threat for all terminals away from
the immediate coast. Expect vis to start dropping around or 
shortly after midnight in Onslow and Duplin Cos, before 
spreading north and east to much of ENC. Widespread MVFR to IFR 
visibility restrictions are expected tonight into the early 
morning hours Friday. Fog around and shortly after sunrise could
be locally dense at times, resulting in visibilities of 1/4SM 
or less. Trended more aggressively with TAFs for the afternoon 
update, but there is room to go more aggressive with this 
evening's update should the current trend of guidance hold. 

LONG TERM /Friday afternoon through Tuesday/... 
As of 3 PM Thursday...Sub-VFR fog is possible Friday morning 
and Friday night into Saturday morning due to light winds and 
mostly clear skies. Signal for fog Saturday morning looks to be
higher than that of Friday morning. During the afternoon and 
evening hours Friday and Saturday, VFR conditions are expected 
to prevail. The risk of sub VFR conditions may then gradually 
increase Sunday into early next week as a coastal trough or weak
coastal low offshore migrates towards the coast with better 
moisture, lift, and instability. This setup also carries a risk 
of scattered SHRA and possibly a few TSRA (especially for 
coastal areas).

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Friday/... 
As of 3 PM Thursday...Light and variable winds tonight across 
the board. As a result, seas continue to lay down through the 
period with buoy obs currently showing 1-3ft out of the E @ 
9-10sec with minimal wind chop mixed in over the top. Swell 
continues to weaken tonight with seas becoming 1-2ft with 3 ft
near the Gulf Stream by sunset and continuing to ease through 
the overnight. Friday, benign marine conditions continue, with
light winds, waves 1-3 ft, and clear skies. 


LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/... 
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Monitoring potential for SCA conditions this weekend into early 
next week

High pressure overhead on Friday will shift east on Saturday as low 
pressure develops well to the south of the ENC waters. The 
tightening gradient between this low and strong high pressure over 
New England should lead to building northeasterly winds over the 
weekend, with the potential for 20-25kt wind gusts. Guidance has 
backed off on the strength of the developing low to our south, but 
persistent, and building, northeasterly flow should lead to seas 
building to 5-8ft, especially by Sunday. It should be noted that the 
potential exists for a period of 8-10ft seas during this time, 
especially in the contraflow against the Gulf Stream south of Cape 
Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RJ
SHORT TERM...RJ
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/RJ