081 
FXUS64 KFWD 180628
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
128 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot weather will continue through this weekend with 
  afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

- Isolated showers and storms are expected again today, with 
  higher chances overnight as a cluster of storms moves through.

- There will be a slight chance of storms on a daily basis
  beginning Saturday night through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Friday Afternoon/

A slow-moving closed low and trough are currently meandering east
towards the Midwest, with shortwave disturbances continuing to 
round the trough. One such shortwave is currently transiting 
across the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma as of 1 AM, promoting 
isolated-scattered showers and storms. This activity should 
remain north of the Red River. Expect a relatively quiet overnight
period, with low temperatures expected to bottom out in the 60s 
and 70s. The Southern Plains will remain within the base of the 
trough as we head into the end of the work week, allowing a 
slightly unsettled pattern to continue. The best source of lift 
will stay to our north today, with diurnal heating the main driver
of any afternoon showers and storms (similar to days before). 
Severe weather is not expected, though gusty winds and lightning 
would be the main impact under any storm. Convection could begin 
anywhere, and have continued with broad-brushed 15-20% PoPs for 
the afternoon, though most will likely remain dry. Afternoon highs
will peak in the upper 80s to mid 90s once again.

The disturbance's attendant cold front is expected to slide down 
across Oklahoma tonight, but will likely stall as it nears the 
Red River. However, a cluster of showers and storms along the 
boundary will continue to push south-southeast overnight into 
Friday morning, impacting portions of the Red River, ArkLaTex, and
East Texas. Severe weather is unlikely with this activity, but 
gusty winds, lightning, and heavy rain will all be possible within
the cluster. The cluster will likely continue its S-SE trajectory
over the afternoon, though more isolated convection may pop up 
further west. No severe weather is expected with this activity. 
Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will once again rise into the 
upper 80s to mid 90s.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Evening Onward/

By the weekend, the initial upper low to our north will devolve 
into an open wave and shift a bit further east, which will 
transition our mid-level wind field to more of a NW-W direction. 
Minute disturbances will move through the Southern Plains, keeping
chances for showers and storms in the forecast each day as we 
head into this upcoming week. Eyes are now focusing on a digging 
shortwave from the PACNW as latest guidance has it amplifying into
a closed low as it reaches the Plains early next week. This low 
will send a front south, bringing additional rain chances and 
slightly cooler temperatures towards midweek. With this scenario 
still 6-7 days out, there is considerable uncertainty in just 
where the low will truly end up, with about half of total ensemble
members having a stronger low with a more southerly track. 
Whether or not the low is further south or north will likely 
impact the extent and intensity of any convection in our area. All
this being said, we'll keep an eye on model trends as we head 
through the rest of this week, and will update the forecast with 
more details regarding precipitation chances.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Southerly winds will prevail through the period, continuing to 
oscillate between SW to SE with speeds generally near or below 7 
kts. Similar to yesterday, isolated showers and storms will be 
possible during the afternoon, and have included VCSH for the D10 
airports between 21-00Z. Severe weather is not expected, though 
erratic and gusty outflow winds may occur underneath or nearby any
storm. Coverage in Central Texas is a bit more uncertain, and 
have not included any convective mention in ACT's TAF for now. 
Other than diurnal cumulus and passing mid-level clouds, VFR will 
prevail through the next 30 hours.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    73  92  73  92  73 /   5  20  30  30   0 
Waco                72  91  70  92  71 /   0  20  10  20   0 
Paris               68  88  67  91  70 /   5  20  40  40   5 
Denton              69  92  69  93  70 /   5  20  30  30   5 
McKinney            70  91  70  92  71 /   0  20  30  30   5 
Dallas              73  93  73  94  74 /   0  20  30  30   0 
Terrell             70  90  69  91  70 /   0  20  30  40   5 
Corsicana           72  92  70  93  71 /   0  20  20  30   0 
Temple              70  92  68  92  70 /   0  20   5  20   0 
Mineral Wells       68  93  68  94  70 /   5  20  20  20   0 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$