186 
FNUS74 KFWD 180125
FWSFWD

Spot Forecast for Mathews Prairie RX...MEC Environmental
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
825 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on September 18. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...OZONE ACTION DAY IN EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...
Following a dry start to Thursday, isolated showers and 
thunderstorms will develop by mid afternoon with coverage of 
10-20%. Even if showers and thunderstorms do not directly impact 
the fire location, they could produce gusty and erratic outflow 
winds with abrupt changes in direction. Additional storms may 
spread into the area from the northwest Thursday night into Friday
with rain chances of 30% continuing overnight. Otherwise a light 
southerly wind will prevail with high temperatures in the low/mid 
90s. Minimum RH values will fall to about 40% on Thursday 
afternoon, but will only dip to about 55% on Friday. 


.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Slight chance of 
                    showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. 
Max temperature.....Around 93. 
Min humidity........41 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected 
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......7200 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 5 mph shifting to the west 5 
                    to 6 mph in the late morning, then shifting 
                    to the south around 5 mph late in the 
                    afternoon. 

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky (%).........16  15  17  21  15  27  38  43  49  40  
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH 
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  
Tstm cov........                                SCH SCH 
Temp............71  76  81  86  89  91  91  92  91  90  
RH..............84  71  63  55  47  42  42  41  41  45  
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  W   SW  SW  S   W   S   S   
20 FT wind spd..2   2   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   7   8   8   8   9   9   8   
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.6 1.1 2.9 5.6 7.2 6.5 5.5 4.3 3.0 
Transp wind dir.S   SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  W   S   S   
Transp wind spd.5   5   6   6   5   5   6   5   5   8   

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Slight chance of 
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then 
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight. 
Min temperature.....Around 68. 
Max humidity........100 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected 
                    near thunderstorms. 
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southeast 5 to 6 mph shifting to the south 8 to 
                    9 mph early in the evening. 

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM 
Sky (%).........29  34  37  37  37  38  40  41  44  47  49  48  
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC 
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC 
Temp............87  83  79  77  76  74  74  72  72  71  70  70  
RH..............50  61  67  74  76  82  84  90  90  93  97  97  
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  
20 FT wind spd..3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   
20 FT wind gust.8   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 
Transp wind dir.E   SE  S   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   
Transp wind spd.6   5   8   9   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of showers 
                    and thunderstorms through the day. 
Max temperature.....Around 89. 
Min humidity........55 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected 
                    near thunderstorms. 
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....South 7 to 10 mph. 

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky (%).........48  47  46  45  45  39  33  32  31  30  29  25  
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH 
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  
Tstm cov........CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH 
Temp............69  68  71  73  76  79  82  86  87  87  88  87  
RH..............100 100 97  90  85  77  69  61  59  57  55  57  
20 FT wind dir..E   E   SE  S   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   SE  SE  
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   3   3   3   
20 FT wind gust.7   7   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8   
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.8 3.6 4.3 4.8 4.6 3.4 
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  S   S   S   S   
Transp wind spd.8   8   9   10  10  10  9   8   7   7   7   8   

$$
Forecaster...Stalley
Requested by...Covey
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2522128.0/FWD
.DELDT 09/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael@mec-fire.com