AFOS product FWSMLB
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Product Timestamp: 2025-09-16 08:33 UTC

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FNUS72 KMLB 160833
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for AHRES Treatment Burn TF 4518...St. Johns River Water Managment District
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
433 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on September 16. 
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Good morning. Drier air across the local area will keep rain and 
storm chances fairly limited at the burn site today and Wednesday.
There is a low (30 percent) chance of rain today before 
increasing slightly on Wednesday as rain chances rise to around 40
percent. While overall lightning storm chances remain limited due
to drier air aloft, isolated storms continue to be possible 
today, with isolated to scattered storms forecast on Wednesday. 
Northeast winds 5-10 mph will become more easterly and increase to
10-15 mph each afternoon (around 2 PM) behind the Atlantic sea 
breeze. No min RH concerns through mid week. Smoke dispersion 
values will be fair to good today and Wednesday. 

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of 
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the 
                    afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms 
                    late in the afternoon, then slight chance of 
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the 
                    afternoon. 
Chance of pcpn......30 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 88. 
Min humidity........63 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic 
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the 
                    afternoon. 
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL increasing to 3600 ft AGL in the 
                    late morning and afternoon. 
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 10 mph. 
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 39. 
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 4 late in the morning, then 
                    decreasing to 2 late in the afternoon 
                    increasing to 3 late in the afternoon. 

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky (%).........17  17  21  27  37  39  40  38  42  50  
Weather cov.....                    SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH 
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  
Tstm cov........                    SCH SCH CHC CHC SCH 
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  20  20  30  30  20  
Temp............73  77  81  83  86  86  86  86  87  84  
RH..............95  84  75  71  66  64  64  64  63  68  
20 FT wind dir..N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  
20 FT wind spd..5   6   7   7   8   8   9   10  10  10  
20 FT wind gust.7   8   9   10  10  12  12  14  15  16  
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.9 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 2.7 
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   
Transp wind spd.5   6   6   7   7   8   8   9   9   10  
Dispersion idx..2   7   18  29  30  34  37  40  38  37  
LVORI...........7   4   3   3   3   2   2   1   1   3   

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of 
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening. 
                    Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms 
                    overnight. 
Chance of pcpn......30 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 73. 
Max humidity........92 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic 
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the 
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near 
                    thunderstorms overnight, then gusty and erratic 
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the 
                    morning. 
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 10 mph. 
Dispersion index....25 decreasing to 4. 
LVORI...............4 increasing to 6 in the late evening and 
                    overnight. 

TIME (EDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM      
Sky (%).........47        43        33        32        
Weather cov.....CHANCE                                  
Weather type....RNSHWR    NONE      NONE      NONE      
Tstm cov........CHANCE                                  
Chc of pcpn (%).30        10        10        10        
Temp............83        77        76        75        
RH..............69        82        84        88        
20 FT wind......NE 10G15  NE 7G12   NE 6G9    E 5G8     
Mix hgt (ft)....1900      400       400       400       
Transport wind..E 10      E 8       NE 7      E 6       
Dispersion idx..25        6         3         3         
LVORI...........3         4         5         6         

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent) then becoming 
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of 
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning. 
                    Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms 
                    early in the morning, then chance of showers 
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. 
Chance of pcpn......40 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 86. 
Min humidity........66 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic 
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the 
                    morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near 
                    thunderstorms early in the morning. 
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL increasing to 3600 ft AGL late in 
                    the morning. 
Transport winds.....East 6 to 12 mph. 
Dispersion index....7 increasing to 35. 
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 4 in the late morning and 
                    afternoon. 

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM         
Sky (%).........33           48           72           
Weather cov.....S CHC        S CHC        CHANCE       
Weather type....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       RNSHWR       
Tstm cov........S CHC        S CHC        CHANCE       
Chc of pcpn (%).20           20           40           
Temp............73           81           85           
RH..............92           78           66           
20 FT wind......NE 5G8       NE 7G10      E 10G15      
Mix hgt (ft)....400          2200         3600         
Transport wind..E 6          E 9          E 9          
Dispersion idx..3            22           35           
LVORI...........6            3            3            

$$
Forecaster...Watson
Requested by...Jonny Baker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2521981.0/MLB
.DELDT 09/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jabaker@sjrwmd.com