National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTSA
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDTSA
Product Timestamp: 2025-09-10 23:23 UTC
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949 FXUS64 KTSA 102323 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 623 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 - Low (15-20%) shower and thunderstorm chances in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas through early evening. - Dry weather with above normal temperatures into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 Disturbance across KS and remnant MCV in northern OK will continue to move east today as a mid-level ridge builds northward into the High Plains. Lower levels remain dry ahead of the disturbance so any convection that manages to redevelop this afternoon will be high based. Will continue to carry thunder given steep mid-level lapse rates present with the trough. Activity is expected to diminish this evening as it moves into far northwest Arkansas. Otherwise, adjusted lows down closer to short term consensus and MOS output as no appreciable moisture recovery is expected with surface ridge in place. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Wednesday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 The ridge continues to amplify across the southern Plains through the end of the week before a western U.S. trough begins to squeeze the ridge axis eastward over the weekend. The combination the expanding thermal ridge and increasing southerly flow will help afternoon temperatures warm into the lower 90s on Thursday and further into the middle 90s over the weekend. Increased moisture will add to the building heat to help it feel even more uncomfortable raising heat concerns for any weekend outdoor activities. Sunday into next week, heights recover on the back side of the shortwave lifting into the upper Mississippi Valley keeping southerly flow in place and any precipitation chances north of the area. Some ensemble members do bring another system into the region toward the middle of next week but overall consensus maintains a warm and dry forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025 VFR conditions are likely through the forecast period for all sites. An area of elevated showers and embedded weak thunderstorms will continue to impact portions of far NE OK this evening as it moves ESE. Additional isolated showers will be possible this evening and early tonight across NW AR sites. Probability of impacts at any one site remain low and any impacts that do occur as a result of precip are likely to be minor and brief. Otherwise, SCT to BKN mid and high clouds are forecast overnight into tomorrow with generally light winds increasing during the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 67 92 69 95 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 68 95 70 96 / 10 0 0 0 MLC 64 92 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 62 91 64 93 / 10 10 0 0 FYV 61 92 66 93 / 20 0 0 0 BYV 67 92 65 94 / 20 10 0 0 MKO 65 92 67 94 / 10 0 0 0 MIO 65 90 65 93 / 20 10 0 0 F10 63 92 68 94 / 10 0 0 0 HHW 64 90 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...43