945 
FXUS64 KMOB 061741 CCA
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1241 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

06.12Z upper air maps show a long-wave upper trof with its axis 
aligned from the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest, southward across the MS 
Valley. Along the south and eastern flank of the upper trof and to 
the north of the local area was draped a surface front from the 
Appalachians, southwest across northern AL, central MS westward into 
central TX. Along this boundary, the highest deep layer moisture 
(PWAT's from 1.5 to 1.9") extends from the TN Valley, southwest to 
central TX. Within the moisture axis, the favored east side of the 
upper trof and front to provide an enhancement of ascent, forecasters
are seeing pockets of organized convection. As we go through the 
afternoon, the front is progged to slip southward as does the deeper 
moisture into our area to support the potential for a slight to lower
end chance of showers and perhaps a storm as suggested by the short 
range ensemble high resolution guidance. Appears a diurnal mode is in
place as activity is expected to dwindle tonight. Another impulse 
aloft passing east around the base of the upper trof on Sunday along 
with an inverted surface trof extending from the southeast to across 
the north-central FL Panhandle may be enough to squeeze out a slight 
chance PoP over a small portion of mainly the NW FL Panhandle. 
Otherwise, dry conditions anticipated as surface high pressure begins
building into the local area. 

The upper trof looks to remain aligned over the heart of the forecast
area through the middle of the upcoming week. Meanwhile, an inverted 
surface stretched northeast to southwest over the northeast to 
central Gulf, slips slowly westward in an evolving low level easterly
flow which would favor maintaining small chance PoPs, primarily 
along and southeast of I-65 Monday and along the southern half of 
zones Tuesday. Over the coastal waters, showers and storms look to 
see better coverage. Progressively drier air is anticipated to flow 
into the forecast area the remainder of the week. 

Highs Sunday 85 to 90 interior and lower to mid 90s over the 
southern zones trend mostly in the mid to upper 80's Monday and 
Tuesday. Upper 80's to lower 90's the remainder of the week. Lows 
look to remain mostly in the mid to upper 60's interior to upper 
60's/lower 70's coast. A low risk of rip currents is anticipated 
through Monday, then a moderate risk follows for Monday night through
Wednesday. The guidance continues to reflect the possibility that a 
high risk of rip currents could set up for Tuesday. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid-afternoon as a
surface boundary moves south across the area, but will dissipate 
during the early evening hours. Winds will remain light and
variable. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025

Front sinks southward into the northern Gulf, bringing a light to 
moderate northerly flow in its wake tonight into Sunday. Northeast 
flow strengthens Sunday night as high pressure builds before turning 
more easterly and relaxing on Monday. A moderate to occasionally 
strong east-northeasterly flow expected into the early half of next 
week. Seas to reflect a building trend the next few days before 
subsiding mid to late week. Will continue to monitor for need of 
Small Craft Exercise Caution or potential Small Craft Advisory 
conditions in the near term. No other impacts are anticipated other 
than higher winds and seas near storms. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  90  66  89  69  87  68  89 /  10  10   0  10  10  30  10  10 
Pensacola   74  91  70  89  72  86  71  88 /  10  10   0  20  20  30  20  20 
Destin      75  91  72  88  72  86  72  88 /  10  10  10  30  30  30  20  20 
Evergreen   69  90  63  89  65  88  65  90 /  10   0   0  10  10  10   0  10 
Waynesboro  66  85  59  87  63  88  64  88 /  10   0   0   0   0  10   0   0 
Camden      69  86  62  87  65  87  66  88 /  10   0   0  10   0  10   0   0 
Crestview   70  91  66  89  68  86  67  88 /  10  10   0  30  20  20  10  10 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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