351 
FXUS63 KUNR 041031
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
431 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong dry cold front passes through the Northern Plains today,
  bringing gusty northwest winds and elevated fire conditions.

- No precipitation expected in the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Thu Sep 4 2025

10Z upper level analysis has the Northern Plains under fast
northwest flow as deep closed low spins just north of Lake
Superior. Skies are mostly clear with just some high clouds
passing through. At the surface, high pressure resides across the
Northern Plains, with a frontal boundary across eastern Montana
and Wyoming. Temperatures are currently in the 40s and 50s across
the forecast area, with generally light and variable winds.

Fast northwest flow continues over the Northern Plains today, 
with a strong upper shortwave and associated surface cold front 
expected to cross the area today. Behind the front, strong
pressure rises of 2-4mb/3hr during peak heating/best mixing will 
produce northwesterly winds of 25-40 mph with gusts to 55 mph. A 
wind advisory is in effect from late morning through early evening
for the SD plains. High temperatures prior to the arrival of the 
cold front will be in the 70s to mid 80s. Winds will diminish 
overnight, with lows falling into the 30s and 40s. No 
precipitation is expected with the frontal passage.

Strong northerly flow persists into Friday, with dry conditions
continuing, and cool temps. Highs will be well below average, in
the 50s and 60s. Low temps will be quite cool, with some areas
dipping to around freezing by Saturday morning. Some patchy frost
is very possible late Friday night into Saturday morning.

Western upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies and Plains
this weekend into the middle of next week. Temperatures will
slowly rise back to near average by the end of the weekend, and
above average through the early part of next week. No
precipitation is expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 943 PM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Smoke will linger through the overnight hours, while conditions
should remain VFR for most of the area, LCL MVFR conditions are
possible. Winds variable overnight around 5 kts pick up from N/NW
by late morning with gusts up to 40kts. LLWS possible during 
morning transition period, mainly over northeastern WY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM 
     MDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-025-026-
     030>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>078.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...Wong