191 
FXUS64 KFWD 271755
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat index values near/slightly above 100 are forecast today 
  and tomorrow, with tomorrow being the hottest day of the week.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible today; primarily across
  portions of western Central Texas and the Big Country this
  afternoon through early evening.

- Increasing rain chances and cooler weather return later this
  week and this weekend behind the passage of a cold front
  late Thursday and Friday.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

Recent water vapor imagery shows a mid-level ridge remains in 
place over our state. At the same time, southerly flow in the 
lower levels continues to bring gulf moisture into our region. 
With a steady stream of higher dewpoints, the weak surface 
boundary near our southern counties of Central Texas should 
continue to retract north the rest of the day. We're still 
expecting a round of isolated showers and storms through early 
this evening mainly for portions of western Central Texas and the
Big Country. Some of this activity may approach the I-35 corridor
in North Texas, but if anything develops it should be short-lived
with only a 10% chance of rain. Occasional lightning and brief 
heavy rain will be the main concern with any storm today. For the 
rest of us, expect mostly sunny skies with the exception of the 
far northeast zones where clouds may hang around the rest of the 
day. Temperatures will be near normal for late August with highs 
mainly in the low to mid 90s. Those areas that stay mostly cloudy 
will see highs in the upper 80s.

For tomorrow, we're still expecting a hot, breezy, humid day 
ahead of an approaching cold front. Latest guidance shows a mid- 
level wave rotating around an upper trough over the eastern 
CONUS, moving into portions of the southern Plains (eastern OK and
AR). This will push the cold front towards our region late 
Thursday into Friday. Ahead of it, breezy southwest flow near the 
surface will bring hot/humid air with widespread highs in the 
mid/upper 90s. While there is some low rain chances in the morning
across the northeast, the best chance for storms for North Texas 
will arrive in the late afternoon and evening with the help of 
daytime heating. A few strong to marginally severe storms are 
possible due to sufficient instability and deep-layer shear. 
Currently, we are monitoring areas along the Red River and the 
northeastern counties for the threat of strong/severe downburst 
winds, hail and locally heavy rain. As expected, CAMs still differ
on the timing of the front and coverage of storms ahead/along of 
it. Some have convection developing along the Red River by mid 
afternoon (after 3 pm) and others don't show much until the 
evening (after 7pm). The most likely scenario at this time is that
we will see storms developing over Oklahoma in the early 
afternoon hours and then tracking south along the Red River by 
late afternoon or early evening (after 5 pm). Rain chances will 
expand across our region overnight and Friday as the front pushes 
south. The highest PoPs continue to be across East Teas where the 
highest lift/moisture will reside. Highs on Friday will depend on 
the progression/position of the front and the clouds/rain. Areas 
behind the front will likely stay in the 80s while areas ahead of 
the front (mostly Central TX) will see highs in the low/mid 90s.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Weekend and Early Next Week/

The weekend will remain somewhat active with northwest flow aloft
sending a couple of disturbances across the region. We will have 
at least a slight chance for showers and storms Saturday and 
Sunday area-wide with the best coverage (30-50%) across Central 
Texas and the Hill Country. By Labor Day (Monday), rain chances 
will be confined to our southern zones as the second wave departs.
We won't see a washout over the weekend, and many locations will 
miss the rain during this period. The main concern with any storm 
will be occasional lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain. In
particular for those with outdoor activities during this holiday 
weekend, make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast. 

The combination of rain, clouds and northerly winds will keep the 
daytime highs in the 80s Saturday and Sunday. A gradual warming 
trend will commence next week but highs are expected to remain in 
the upper 80s to low 90s through mid-week.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Overall quiet conditions will prevail across the TAF sites 
through Thursday. Outside of SCT-BKN mid-level clouds, VFR should
continue through the period. A few isolated showers and storms 
are still expected to develop this afternoon and early this 
evening, but the best potential remains across the ArkLaTex and
western Central Texas/Big Country. There is a low (10%) chance 
for any precipitation to approach any of the sites later today. 
Otherwise, winds will remain light the rest of the day generally 
from the southeast. They should eventually veer to the southwest 
by Thursday morning. Occasional gusts near 15 kts can be expected.
Another round of isolated to scattered rain/storms is in the 
forecast for Thursday afternoon but should remain north/northeast 
of the North Texas sites.

Sanchez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  77  97  76  91 /  10  10  20  50  40 
Waco                94  75  97  77  95 /  10  10  10  20  50 
Paris               86  69  91  69  80 /  20  10  60  90  60 
Denton              91  75  97  72  89 /  10  10  20  60  40 
McKinney            90  75  96  73  88 /  10  10  30  60  40 
Dallas              92  77  97  76  92 /  10   5  20  50  40 
Terrell             91  74  95  73  89 /  10   5  20  50  50 
Corsicana           92  76  96  76  94 /  10   5  10  40  60 
Temple              92  73  96  75  96 /  20   5   5  10  40 
Mineral Wells       92  74  97  72  91 /  10  10  10  40  40 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$