456 
FXUS64 KFWD 270639
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
139 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat index values near/slightly above 100 are forecast today 
  and tomorrow, with tomorrow being the hottest day of the week.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible today, with the highest
  rain chances across Northeast Texas this morning.

- Increasing rain chances and cooler weather return late this week
  and this weekend behind the passage of a cold front Thursday
  night and Friday.
 
&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tomorrow/

Last night/yesterday's cold front managed to make it just about
through the entire forecast area. It is just starting to make its
retreat northward and is forecast to gradually wash out/move north
through the early morning hours Wednesday. Right now, the surface
front is easily identifiable in the wind field, but it will become
increasingly difficult to identify using winds alone. Dewpoint
temperature will end up being a better proxy for identifying the
airmass discontinuity as we head through the daylight hours. A
couple areas of precipitation are forecast to develop before 
sunrise this morning. The first is across East and eastern Central 
Texas where an area of weak isentropic ascent ahead of the surface
front should trigger a few showers and thunderstorms. The second
area will be triggered by a corridor of frontogenetic forcing
across Oklahoma and Northeast Texas. Most precip should be north
of our forecast area, but we do have 20-30 PoPs for areas north 
and northeast of the Metroplex this morning. The threat of
lightning with this activity is quite low.

Southerly winds will draw warm/moist air north, resulting in today
being warmer and more humid than yesterday for most of the area.
The only exception to this should be for locations in/near the
Brazos Valley who were pretty warm and humid yesterday, too.
Isolated showers and storms are possible for all of the forecast
area this afternoon...but chances are highest (20%) across Western 
Central Texas and the Big Country along/south of the northward 
advancing moisture convergence axis. The remainder of the area 
only has a 10% or less chance of isolated showers/storms. There 
will be sufficient dry air aloft to support a few strong wind
gusts with the strongest cores, but severe weather is not
expected.

Tonight will be seasonably warm and humid in advance of the
warmest day of the week on Thursday. It looks like a surface low
will develop to our northwest, with the remnant boundary
developing into a warm front over Eastern Oklahoma tonight and
tomorrow. As the surface low deepens and moves southeast Thursday, 
our area will be under the influence of southwest downslope flow 
through peak heating. Our current temperature forecast has highs 
in the upper 90s for most locations west of I-35/35W and the mid 
90s for the remainder of the area. The downslope flow will help 
deepen mixing and lower humidity in the afternoon, so heat index 
values should stay in the low 100s (i.e. less than Heat Advisory 
criteria).

Most of the guidance is dry for Thursday, but we'll be monitoring
the potential of isolated-scattered showers and storms across the 
east/northeast parts of our forecast area. The largest driver of 
precip would be the warm front, so if it moves completely out of 
our forecast area, expect a drier forecast. If it sags within our 
forecast area through peak heating, we'd see showers and storms 
develop across northeast Texas. 

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Friday Onward/

The surface low and its attendant fronts should move through North 
and Central Texas Texas Thursday night and Friday. While rain
chances are better northeast of our forecast area (ahead of the 
warm front/NE of the surface low), there is still at least a 30% 
chance of rain for everyone as the front passes through. Rain 
chances are highest northeast of the Metroplex Thursday night, 
then across Central Texas on Friday along/ahead of the front. The 
front is forecast to push through the entire forecast area Friday,
setting the stage for mild temperatures (80s) this weekend. A mid- 
level ridge that built over Texas today/tomorrow will shift
southwest, so the area will remain under active northwest flow
aloft through the weekend. Intermittent rain chances are forecast
this weekend, but primarily over the western and southern portions 
of the forecast area. Drier air should filter into the region
Sunday and Monday, with a warming/drying trend forecast in the 
early parts of next week.

Bonnette

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06Z TAFs/

Winds are once again the biggest challenge with the TAFs. NE flow
currently prevails at all TAF sites, but we expect the winds to 
slowly veer through the early-morning hours. The winds should 
become more easterly in the few hours before sunrise before 
prevailing solidly out of the ESE after 14-15Z. 

Isolated showers, perhaps a few storms, are forecast this morning
E and SE of our TAF terminals along with scattered rain along the
Red River. None of this activity is forecast to impact the TAF
terminals directly. There is a 10% chance of isolated SHRA this
afternoon, but that is not enough confidence to add mention of
precip to any TAFs.

Bonnette

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  98  76  89  71 /   5  10  40  40  30 
Waco                75  97  77  93  72 /   5   5  20  40  40 
Paris               70  90  69  80  66 /  10  50  80  50  20 
Denton              75  98  71  87  67 /   5  20  50  30  30 
McKinney            75  96  72  87  67 /   5  20  50  40  20 
Dallas              77  98  76  91  71 /   5  10  40  40  30 
Terrell             74  96  73  88  68 /   5  20  50  50  30 
Corsicana           76  97  77  93  71 /   5  10  30  50  30 
Temple              73  97  75  95  71 /   5   5  10  40  40 
Mineral Wells       74  98  73  90  68 /   5  10  30  30  30 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$