AFOS product FWSMLB
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Product Timestamp: 2025-08-21 08:45 UTC

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FNUS72 KMLB 210845
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for JDSP F4...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
445 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 EDT on August 21. 
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Offshore flow will develop today, with westerly winds increasing to
around 5-10 mph this morning and continuing into the afternoon. The
east coast sea breeze will be able to develop, but the low level 
offshore winds may keep it just east of the burn site. If the sea 
breeze can move inland toward the I-95 corridor, expect winds to 
switch to the east-southeast to around 8-10 mph, mainly after 3 PM.
Higher coverage of showers and storms are also forecast today, 
especially with boundary collisions toward the coast, with rain 
chances increasing up to 60 percent later in the afternoon. Storms
will be capable of producing strong and erratic wind gusts, 
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.  

It will be hot and humid today, with a high near 95 degrees at the
burn site, and a peak heat index around 106 degrees. No Min RH 
concerns, with Very Good dispersion values forecast.  

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming partly 
                    sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers and 
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon, then showers 
                    and thunderstorms likely late in the afternoon. 
Chance of pcpn......60 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 95. 
Min humidity........52 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the 
                    late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic 
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the 
                    afternoon. 
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL increasing to 5400 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....West 9 to 15 mph. 
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 63 late in the morning 
                    increasing to 80 in the afternoon. 
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 1. 

TIME (EDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky (%).........4   3   1   1   5   14  30  30  36  49  55  
Weather cov.....                        SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY 
Weather type....                        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  
Tstm cov........                        SCH CHC CHC CHC LKY 
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  20  30  50  50  60  
Temp............77  78  83  88  90  92  93  94  93  93  91  
RH..............94  92  83  70  64  58  55  52  55  54  57  
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   
20 FT wind spd..3   3   5   6   7   7   7   7   8   8   7   
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  12  12  12  12  13  14  14  14  
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.9 4.5 5.0 5.4 4.8 4.5 3.9 
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   
Transp wind spd.9   10  10  12  14  14  15  15  15  15  14  
Dispersion idx..4   6   20  39  63  72  80  80  74  69  60  
LVORI...........7   6   4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming 
                    mostly clear (15-25 percent). Showers and 
                    thunderstorms likely early in the evening, then 
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late 
                    in the evening. 
Chance of pcpn......60 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 76. 
Max humidity........96 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening 
                    becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds 
                    expected near thunderstorms in the evening. 
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in 
                    the evening. 
Transport winds.....West 5 to 13 mph. 
Dispersion index....47 decreasing to 4. 
LVORI...............2 increasing to 7. 

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   
Sky (%).........54     39     30     14     5      6      
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE S CHC                       
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........LIKELY CHANCE S CHC                       
Chc of pcpn (%).60     30     20     10     10     10     
Temp............90     85     83     80     79     77     
RH..............61     70     77     85     88     94     
20 ft wind......W 7    SW 5   SW 2   SW 2   SW 2   SW 2   
20 ft wind gust.13     10     8      8      9      9      
Mix hgt (ft)....3400   900    400    400    400    400    
Transport wind..W 13   NW 7   W 5    W 8    W 7    W 7    
Dispersion idx..47     4      3      4      4      4      
LVORI...........1      3      4      5      6      7      

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly 
                    sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of showers 
                    and thunderstorms early in the morning. Showers 
                    and thunderstorms likely late in the afternoon. 
Chance of pcpn......70 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 95. 
Min humidity........55 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 6 mph. Gusty 
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms 
                    early in the morning. 
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 5700 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....West 7 to 12 mph. 
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 20 late in the morning, then 
                    increasing to 37 late in the morning increasing 
                    to 60 late in the morning increasing to 68 
                    decreasing to 50 late in the afternoon. 
LVORI...............8 decreasing to 1. 

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM      
Sky (%).........4         30        30        55        
Weather cov.....          S CHC     S CHC     LIKELY    
Weather type....NONE      RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    
Tstm cov........          S CHC     S CHC     LIKELY    
Chc of pcpn (%).0         20        20        70        
Temp............77        83        90        93        
RH..............94        83        63        57        
20 FT wind......SW 2G9    W 3G9     W 6G9     SW 6G12   
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1700      4700      5100      
Transport wind..W 7       W 9       W 12      W 12      
Dispersion idx..4         20        63        64        
LVORI...........7         4         1         1         

$$
Forecaster...Weitlich
Requested by...Miranda Cunningham
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2520330.0/MLB
.DELDT 08/21/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL miranda.cunningham@floridadep.gov