333 
FXUS64 KMOB 051124
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
624 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

The soggy pattern continues for southern and eastern half of the 
area, while our northern (especially northwestern) portion of our 
area stays generally dry. Southwesterly flow aloft continues through 
early on Wednesday as a trough slowly meanders across the region, 
sandwiched between a ridge to our west and to our east. Moisture 
continues to surge into the area, especially across the coastal 
counties where a weak front hovers nearby, with PWATs hovering in 
the 2.0-2.4 inch range. The weak front will focus convective 
activity across the coastal counties and generally across the 
eastern portion of the area (east of I-65) through mid-week. While 
we are not concerned about severe storms in this pattern, we do 
remain concerned about the continued threat for minor flooding as 
slow-moving storms repeatedly move over the same locations. Storms 
over the past few days have been efficient rainmakers, producing 2-3 
inches of rain in a short-period of time - this trend will continue 
into Tuesday and potentially Wednesday. 

While we started the week soggy, we will eventually transition 
toward more of a summertime convective pattern later in the week. 
The pattern may attempt to get slightly more active again late in 
the weekend and into early next week as an inverted upper level 
trough potentially pivots westward toward the Gulf. Some of the 
guidance shows a slug of moisture associated with this feature 
sliding into the area by early next week.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains MODERATE today and tonight 
for northwest Florida beaches while MODERATE just today for our 
Alabama beaches. The risk remains LOW for the remainder of the work 
week. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

IFR to LIFR flight category prevails across the region to start
the morning. Showers and storms will continue to gradually shift 
onshore similar to the prior mornings evolution, keeping a good 
chunk of the area socked into IFR to LIFR ceilings through mid 
morning. MVFR to VFR flight category should return to much of the 
area by late morning into the afternoon hours as morning storms 
diminish in coverage, with perhaps some localized reductions in 
ceiling or visibility in the afternoon underneath any redeveloping
storms across the area. Winds remain out of the northeast at 5 to
10 knots today, becoming light and variable tonight. MVFR to IFR
ceilings are once again expected to return overnight tonight, 
similar to how the previous couple nights have evolved. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025

A weak front continues to hover near the coast and out over the 
Gulf early this week. Winds will vary in direction with the 
nearby front but wind speed looks generally light. In addition to 
winds and seas higher near storms, reductions in visibility are 
likely in heavy rains and frequent lightning will also pose a 
hazard to recreational and commercial boating interests. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      88  72  90  72  91  72  90  73 /  70  40  70  30  70  20  60  30 
Pensacola   88  76  90  75  90  74  89  74 /  70  50  70  40  70  40  70  40 
Destin      89  77  90  77  91  76  89  76 /  70  50  70  40  70  50  70  40 
Evergreen   87  70  90  70  91  69  90  70 /  80  40  60  20  50  20  50  20 
Waynesboro  88  70  91  69  91  69  90  69 /  50  20  40  10  40  10  40  10 
Camden      86  70  89  70  89  69  87  70 /  60  30  50  20  40  10  40  10 
Crestview   88  72  90  71  91  71  89  70 /  80  40  80  30  70  30  70  30 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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