120 
FXUS62 KMHX 310618
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
218 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled just south of the area will lift north late today. 
A cold front will approach the waters tonight and push through 
the area Friday. High pressure will build in from the north 
through the weekend with the front stalled offshore. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Moderate heat risk today

 - Increased risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain, minor 
   flooding, and gusty winds through tonight

Increasing southerly flow and moisture advection will lead to a
deepening layer of moisture throughout the column today, with 
PWATs surging north of 2". Meanwhile, an upper level shortwave 
will translate east across the Mid-Atlantic, which will help 
induce weak cyclogenesis over central/eastern Virginia, with a 
cold front trailing SW into central NC. 

The upper level wave and increased low-level forcing along the 
cold front and the diurnal seabreeze will be favorably timed 
with the increased moisture and instability across the area, 
which should be supportive of scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms. The peak in coverage should occur after 2pm. 
However, a weak warm front lifting north off the Atlantic this 
morning will support a risk of scattered convection along the 
coast through about mid-morning.

Guidance are in very good agreement depicting PWATs of 
2.30-2.50" by this afternoon. The combination of high PWATs, 
moderate instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500j/kg), and increased 
forcing should support intense rainfall rates and the potential 
for some hydro concerns. Deterministic and ensemble guidance 
suggest rainfall amounts of 2-4" will be possible where 
convection is the strongest. Of note, if any training convection
occurs, rainfall amounts could top out in the 5- 7" range. 
Those higher amounts should be on a more isolated basis. 
However, where/if those highest amounts are realized, there will
potentially be a flash flood risk, especially for urban areas. 
Because of the more isolated nature of the flash flood 
potential, a Flood Watch is not currently anticipated, but we 
will continue to re- evaluate this potential. It could be that 
today sets the stage for increased hydro concerns in the coming 
days.

ENC will be on the far southern periphery of modest westerlies 
aloft, supporting a subtle increase in deep layer shear to 
10-20kt. This may support a little more storm organization, but 
the overall risk of severe thunderstorms should remain on the 
LOW side. For any taller, more sustained cores that can develop,
a risk of 40-60 mph wind gusts appears plausible.

Dewpoints and humidity levels will increase today as moisture 
increases across the region. This will overlap with highs in the
upper 80s to low 90s, supporting heat indices of 100-105 
degrees. This is right on the margins for heat headlines. While 
a few places will likely hit 105 for a heat index today, the 
duration of 105+ should be tempered by increased thunderstorm 
activity and cloudcover. In light of this, we will forego any 
heat headlines for today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing 
this evening as an upper level wave interacts with a very moist 
and moderately unstable airmass. As large scale forcing 
increases, and as deep layer shear bumps up to 15-20kt, it's 
possible that a larger cluster, or two, of thunderstorms may 
develop, especially east of HWY 17. This activity will then 
shift offshore later tonight. Ensemble and machine learning 
guidance show a decent signal for 40- 60 mph winds if any 
cluster of thunderstorms manages to develop. While the overall 
severe thunderstorm risk appears LOW tonight, the risk of strong
to marginally severe wind gusts appears plausible. Heavy rain 
and flooding will continue to be a risk as well thanks to the 
high PWAT airmass. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...

Key Messages:

 - Cold front will bring heavy rain and relief from the heat 
   late week into the start of next week

 - Flooding concerns continue Friday

Broad troughing aloft will extend an area of lower pressure 
across the eastern US late week. At the surface, a potent cold 
front will work its way across the Appalachians with pre-frontal
troughing developing across the Carolinas. The cold front will 
take its sweet time crossing the FA on Friday, likely not moving
offshore until Saturday morning. Once offshore, the front will 
stall through the weekend and support the development of a 
series of lows that will move northeasterly away from our coast.
This stalled boundary will then slowly lift north as a warm 
front on Monday and Tuesday.

Good news: This FROPA will cause an air mass change, bringing 
an end to the oppressive heat and humidity that has plagued ENC 
for the past week. Bad news: the combination of the 
aforementioned synoptic and meso setup within a moisture loaded 
atmosphere is a recipe for multiple days of rain and flooding 
concerns. 

Impressive PWATs on the order of 2.25-2.75"+ will remain over
the area through Friday, gradually decreasing from north to 
south through Saturday as the front settles offshore, then 
surging again from south to north at the start of next week as 
the front lifts north. Moisture of this magnitude will support 
heavy rainfall from any cell that forms, and the slow 
progression of the front will increase concern for training 
cells. On Friday, the combination of lower CAPE, greater PWATs, 
and better forcing will create a greater flooding concern. WPC 
currently has all of ENC outlined in marginal (level 1/4) and 
slight (level 2/4) risks for flash flooding Friday-Saturday. The
coast and areas along and south of Highway 264 are expected to 
see the most precip through Tuesday (2-4") with lower amounts to
the north (1-2"). Locally higher amounts are possible wherever 
stronger and/or training cells occur. 

Heat advisories may still be needed for portions of the area 
Friday with heat indices forecast to reach around 105. Friday's
FROPA will be the swan song for this oppressive heat and 
humidity with highs on Saturday and Sunday staying in the low- 
to mid-80s and dewpoints ranging from the upper-60s to low-70s. 
Compared to this past weekend, some places across the coastal 
plain will see a nearly 20 degree high temperature difference. 
Temps will gradually rebound at the start of next week (mid- to 
upper-80s).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06z Friday/... 
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Increased TSRA risk over the next 24 hours

Scattered SHRA and TSRA are expected to move through coastal 
sections of ENC overnight into early Thursday morning, 
potentially coming close to KOAJ and KEWN. For now, I opted to 
leave TSRA out of the TAFs there overnight due to uncertainties 
with how far inland the risk will reach. Further inland, the 
TSRA risk looks to stay lower than along the coast. However, 
moving into Thursday, the risk of TSRA is expected to increase 
for all of ENC, and for all TAF sites. PROB30s will continue to 
reflect this potential. Eventually, TEMPO or prevailing groups 
are expected as the timing of TSRA impacts becomes more clear. 
Where TSRA occur, there will be an associated risk of sub VFR 
CIGs/VIS, and 30-50kt wind gusts. The TSRA risk is expected to 
last into Thursday evening aided by an upper level wave 
interacting with a very moist and moderately unstable airmass.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/... 
As of 2:50 AM Wednesday...

There will be several chances for sub-VFR CIGs and VIS through 
the long term, especially through the weekend when a cold front
will bring heavy rainfall to the area.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/... 
As of 315 PM Wednesday...

Generally light E-SE winds less than 10 kt this afternoon with
seas around 1-2 ft with 8 sec predominant period. Winds will 
veer to southerly overnight and then increase to 10-15 kt 
Thursday afternoon as gradients begin to tighten as a cold front
approaches the area. Seas will continue around 1-2 ft through
Thursday morning then will begin to see up to 3 ft building
late in the day. 

LONG TERM /Thursday night through Monday/... 
As of 3:10 AM Wednesday...

A strong cold front will cross the waters late Friday, which 
will increase winds to 15-20 kt as they veer to the north. A 
northeasterly surge behind the front will increase winds to 
20-30 kt on Saturday. Gales are possible for the coastal waters 
north of Cape Hatteras, the northern Pamlico Sound, and the 
northern rivers and sounds. On Sunday, northeasterly winds will 
gradually decrease to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt.

1-3 ft seas at the start of the period will build to 2-4 ft by 
early Friday. Prolonged northeasterly fetch will build seas from
north to south Friday night into Sunday with peak heights 
expected Sunday afternoon. 5-10 ft seas are possible across the 
central waters with 4-7 ft seas across the northern and southern
waters.

Highest PoPs will be Friday-Saturday with heavy rain, gusty 
winds, and frequent lightning possible.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 10 PM EDT Sunday for 
     AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for 
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Friday to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for 
     AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 4 PM EDT Monday for 
     AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Sunday for 
     AMZ230.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Friday to 11 PM EDT Sunday for 
     AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...RM/CEB
MARINE...CEB