National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDBMX
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDBMX
Product Timestamp: 2025-07-25 17:38 UTC
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434 FXUS64 KBMX 251738 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025 - There is a medium to high chance for dangerous heat conditions Sunday through Thursday. This will be a long-duration period of extreme heat conditions with no overnight relief, affecting anyone without adequate cooling/hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025 A large plume of tropical-like moisture associated with a wave in the northwestern Gulf is overspreading the region as surface to 700 mb flow shifts from easterly to southerly. Our morning sounding revealed exceptionally deep moisture up to almost 500 mb. Daytime heating and localized low-level convergence will continue to support multiple bands of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms through the afternoon and into the early evening. The corridor of highest moisture content will begin to move west of I-65 on Saturday as a ridge builds to our east. There will be a notable gradient in PWAT values and rain chances from west to east across the forecast area on Saturday. 87/Grantham && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025 There were no drastic shifts from the overnight forecast for the long term. However it is worth mentioning that rain chances could increase late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, especially across our southern counties as the ridge retreats. Sometimes the first day of convection juxtaposed with excessive heat can result in rather rowdy thunderstorm activity. 87/Grantham Previous long-term discussion: (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025 Confidence in extreme heat conditions is increasing for early next week. With the center of the high over the area beginning Sunday, high temps will be increasing Sunday through Tuesday at least. Highs Sunday will be in the mid 90s with upper 90s to near 100 expected by Tuesday. Heat indices will likely exceed 105 Sunday and Monday and heat advisories will likely be needed as we get closer to that time. By Tuesday, forecast guidance has heat indices near or exceeding 110 in several locations. Tuesday morning low temperatures will be in the upper 70s with some sites nearing records for high minimum temperatures. With several days in a row of high daytime heat indices and limited to no overnight recovery, anyone without adequate cooling systems will be at risk. The extreme heat could continue into Wednesday and Thursday, though the ridge begins to shift more to our west by that point, leading to some lower rain chances (30-50%) building into the region. The timing of the rain is important here as we could still see 105+ heat indices Wednesday and Thursday afternoons before any rain activity. So while we may get past the "peak" of the heat wave on Tuesday, the high heat indices could still lead to continued impacts through Thursday. 25/Owen && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025 Numerous moderate to heavy showers will pass across or in the vicinity of the TAF sites through the daylight hours, with some possibility for embedded lightning strikes. Widespread IFR ceilings are expected later in the TAF period around daybreak on Saturday. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 87/Grantham && .FIRE WEATHER... Very little fire weather concerns are expected through the next few days as a typical summertime air mass remains in place. Min RHs should remain near or above 50% through that time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 71 92 72 95 / 30 30 0 10 Anniston 72 91 73 93 / 30 30 0 10 Birmingham 73 92 75 95 / 30 30 0 10 Tuscaloosa 73 92 74 95 / 30 50 0 10 Calera 73 91 73 94 / 30 40 0 10 Auburn 72 91 74 93 / 30 20 0 10 Montgomery 73 92 73 96 / 30 40 0 10 Troy 71 92 72 95 / 30 40 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87/Grantham LONG TERM....87/Grantham AVIATION...87/Grantham