200 
FXUS63 KFSD 241017
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
517 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today and Friday look to be mostly dry and not as hot, with 
  highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Still a touch on the 
  humid side. Friday night low chances of showers and 
  thunderstorms are possible.

- Saturday through Monday will see higher humidity surge back 
  into the area with a good chance for dangerous heat each day. 
  Sunday and Monday appear to be the hottest days.

- Sunday night into Tuesday night may see a couple of chances
  for strong to severe thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will exit northwest IA early this 
morning with instability settling south. This should bring about a 
dry day as dry air aloft and a capping inversion bring about partly 
cloudy conditions with a little less humidity. High temperatures 
should be mainly in the lower to mid 80s.

A marginally stable ridge of high pressure will be in place tonight 
which should keep most convective activity out of the area. A few 
showers and thunderstorms will be possible south of highway 20 in 
northwest IA late tonight. For now these do not appear to be severe.

A well agreed upon wave will lift northeast into northwest IA on 
Friday and could bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms to 
that area. If the surface to 925mb layer is unstable enough then 
much of the activity will remain to the south. Will need to watch 
trends on this however as chances may need to be increased if model 
agreement continues.

Saturday will see upper level ridging begin to build with a fast 
moving jet streak moving from the Western High Plains into the 
Northern Plains. This could aid in developing showers and 
thunderstorms on Saturday night and with decent shear and 
instability some severe weather will be possible, especially in 
central and northeast SD.

Sunday into Sunday night will likely see a continuation of 
thunderstorm potential, mainly north of I-90 and better chances in 
southwest MN. Outside of the thunderstorm chances will be increasing 
heat and humidity with Sunday and Monday the most likely days to see 
heat indices at or above 100.

While timing is a little different another jet max and wave move 
onto the Plains Monday into Tuesday and will continue the chance for 
strong to severe thunderstorms. Less hot air appears to settle into 
the area Monday night into Tuesday which should bring highs in the 
80s Tuesday and as flow aloft turns more northerly highs in the 70s 
will be possible on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 515 AM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Patchy fog is expected across the area through about 15z. The
most concentrated area of fog will be from central into
northeast SD where some patchy LIFR visibilities are expected.
Ocne the fog lifts, VFR conditions are expected. KSUX may see an
isolated thunderstorm after about 9z on Friday morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08