222 
FXUS63 KAPX 211012
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
612 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend through Thursday. High temperatures will reach into 
the 90s Wednesday and Thursday 

- Humidity and chances for showers return Wednesday. Best
  chances for widespread showers and storms is Thursday &&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Surface high pressure continues to dominate northern MI today. 
Little amplification exists in the upper level pattern today, and as 
a result the center of the surface high will be able to slide over 
Lk Huron. Calm winds will eventually become easterly around mid day. 
Drier and slightly cooler air will push over NE lower, keeping 
afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. Otherwise temperatures will 
warm into the high 70s elsewhere. Skies should remain mostly clear, 
with afternoon CU developing over a few places. With little forcing 
overhead, lake breezes will likely form later this afternoon and 
evening, with the Lk Huron lake breeze pushing past I-75 (it has a 
little help thanks to the surface high). Overnight lows will 
generally be in the 50s tonight, with some interior locations of NE 
lower possibly seeing lows dip into the high 40s.

&&


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The center of the surface high will land over OH/PA Tuesday. Drier 
air will continue to flow over the lower penisula as surface winds 
are S/SE. Upper level ridging over the central plains will establish 
a zonal jet over the northern plains. Very high amounts of moisture 
will be present under the dome of high pressure (PWATs up to 2"). 
All of this moisture is pumped up to the northern plains Tuesday. 
Convection will likely initiate there, with storms drifting into WI 
late Tuesday. Early Wednesday, global guidance agrees on a NE 
movement of the dome of high pressure. Heights aloft increase, 
leading to temperatures warming into the 90s for Wednesday and 
Thursday. However, this trend would shift storms up towards the U.P. 
and likely keep the best chances for showers and storms over eastern 
upper, near the tip of the mitt, and parts of Lk MI for Wednesday. 
The upper high will continue eastward Thursday, allowing for a 
shortwave trough and surface boundary to move over MI. Widespread 
showers and storms will be likely when this occurs. The exact timing 
is sill up for debate, however it will likely occur sometime on 
Thursday. The boundary moves in drier air, which helps get 
temperatures back down into the 80s for Friday and this weekend. 
  
The main hazard with storms on Wednesday will be heavy rain. The 
environment will be very moist (mean ensemble PWATs remain around 
1.85") with a WCL of around 10 to 12 kft. As the shortwave 
approaches and upper heights (and temps) lower Thursday, instability 
starts to jump. Drier air aloft will also move in, introducing more 
frequent lightning, hail, and strong outflow wind potential. Again, 
these chances are for storms that form Thursday (which will likely 
be along the boundary once it moves through).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Perhaps brief BR/FG at MBL for another hour, otherwise, VFR 
conditions through the period with light (AOB 10KTs) east to 
northeast winds, occasional high clouds, and dry weather. 

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELD
LONG TERM...ELD
AVIATION...JLD