665 
FXUS64 KLIX 181818
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
118 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Upper portion of the weather system that has impacted the area
over the last few days has moved into east Texas this afternoon,
with the surface low over southern Arkansas. To this point of the
afternoon, convective development has been much less than
anticipated, but with precipitable water values remaining in
excess of 2.2 inches, and very healthy cumulus noted on satellite,
not going to back off on high probabilities this afternoon quite
yet. Any storms that do develop will obviously still have the
potential to produce very heavy rainfall. No changes to the Flood
Watch...yet. With most convection expected to be diurnally driven
this afternoon, watch is likely to be pared back or perhaps even
cancelled entirely at some point during the late afternoon/early
evening news cycle. 

Little in the way of precipitation expected during the overnight
hours tonight. Precipitable water values are comparatively drier
on Saturday, closer to 2 inches, and areal coverage of storms
should remain on the scattered side, primarily in the afternoon.
This will lead to somewhat higher max temperatures, in the lower
90s. Heat index values look to fall just short of advisory
criteria. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

As ridging builds in from the east Sunday into early next week,
precipitable water values fall back into the 1.7 to 1.9 inch
range, which is much closer to climatological means for late July.
Rain chances in the 20 to 40 percent range may actually be
overstating things for Sunday through Tuesday, and it wouldn't be
a shock if much of the area remained dry during that period.
That's going to allow high temperatures to heat up several degrees
into the lower and middle 90s. Looks like we'll have borderline
Heat Advisory criteria for portions of the area Sunday afternoon,
and more solidly criteria level for Monday and Tuesday. Not quite
enough confidence to pull the trigger on an advisory for Sunday
yet, but the potential is there. 

An easterly wave is expected to move through the northern Gulf for
Wednesday and Thursday, but some uncertainty as to whether the
precipitation shield with that system remains over the Gulf of
spreads into portions of the area. That will be the difference
between scattered storms and highs around 90, or mostly dry and
highs in the mid 90s. Will hang with the NBM numbers for now. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Primarily MVFR ceilings at forecast issuances, but patches of VFR
conditions. Areal coverage of TSRA has been limited for the last
several hours, but expect more development between 19z-23z before
diminishing again around sunset. Will carry PROB30 for now, but at
least a few amendments likely to be needed this afternoon.
Overnight should see primarily VFR conditions. Areal coverage of
TSRA expected to be more limited on Saturday, and will not mention
TSRA prior to 18z, and only PROB30 beyond 18z at KMSY for now. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Dropped the Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines from the
coastal waters as observations generally 15 knots or less.
Pressure gradient expected to remain rather weak through the
forecast period. Beyond tonight, areal coverage of thunderstorms
expected to be much more limited than the last several days
through at least Tuesday. Threat for thunderstorms may increase
again at midweek next week, but timing on exactly when that
happens isn't confidently clear. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  91  72  93 /  20  50   0  20 
BTR  75  91  75  93 /  10  60   0  40 
ASD  74  91  74  93 /  20  50  10  30 
MSY  78  92  78  94 /  10  60   0  40 
GPT  77  91  76  93 /  20  50  10  30 
PQL  76  91  75  93 /  30  40  10  30 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-
     056>060-064>071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ077-083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW