099 
FXUS63 KIND 172252
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
652 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily storm chances continue through at least early next week with 
  cooler temperatures through Friday.

- Strong to severe storms Saturday with the potential for flooding, 
  especially into the morning hours on Sunday.

- Likely hazardous heat conditions towards next Tuesday and beyond 
  with heat indices in the 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Rest of Today and Tonight.

As of early this afternoon, shower coverage is minimal with a few 
residual showers across the far south eastern counties. A diffuse 
frontal boundary is currently across far southern Indiana which will 
be the focus point for additional thunderstorm development into the 
afternoon and evening hours. This will likely keep the 
shower/thunderstorm potential to a minimum through around 00Z. There 
remains a lot of uncertainty as to how conditions will evolve going 
into the afternoon hours with significant model swings between the 
hourly HRRR runs as it struggles to initiate and maintain convection 
in a hot and humid airmass with only marginal forcing. Based on the 
current location of the front the better chance for heavier rain 
looks to be more across far southeastern Indiana so have elected 
against a Flood Watch for our southeastern counties, but will 
continue to monitor radar trends into the evening for any potential 
need for Advisory/Warning products.

A lack of shear should prevent any significant organization with 
these storms with the most likely outcome being scattered showers 
with a few storms developing over the next few hours and continuing 
into the late evening hours. Storm motion should be fast enough to 
limit the flooding threat, but many locations in southern Indiana 
have seen at least one round of heavy rain in the last week which 
will create areas that are more susceptible to brief flooding. Some 
models try and keep convection going into the later overnight hours 
but without a more robust LLJ, a lack of moisture flux should limit 
the coverage. There will be a potential for patchy fog across 
southern Indiana towards daybreak tomorrow, especially in areas that 
see rain tonight but with expected widespread cloud cover, dense fog 
looks unlikely at this time.

Friday.

The front should be along the Ohio River by Friday which will limit 
the rain potential for much of central Indiana, but expect to see at 
least partly cloudy skies through much of the morning hours with 
residual saturation in the low levels. These clouds will begin to 
clear later into the afternoon, but that should limit the higher end 
temperatures with highs closer to the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Friday Night through Monday...

Typical, hot, humid weather with daily chances for convective 
showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through the 
weekend. 

The upper pattern through the weekend appears to remain mainly zonal 
across Indiana and the Great Lakes, with several embedded short 
waves within the flow expected to pass on Saturday and again on 
Sunday. The lower levels will continue to be dominated by strong 
high pressure southeast of Central Indiana, which continued provide 
a flow of warm and moist air into Central Indiana. Forecast 
soundings continue to suggest plenty of diurnal CAPE available on 
both Saturday and Sunday with values in excess of 2500 J/KG with 
steep lapse rates favorable for convection. Thus with plenty 
moisture available, favorable forcing passing aloft along with 
diurnal heating will continue to result daily chances for showers 
and thunderstorms. PWATS will continue to be very high through the 
weekend, over 2 inches. Should the same location be stuck with 
multiple rounds of heavy rain, flooding may be threat.

Temperatures and dewpoints through the weekend will remain quite 
high. Dew points are expected to linger around 70 with daily highs 
in the upper 80s to around 90.

Monday through Thursday...

The upper pattern is expected to begin to change on Monday, going 
from a zonal flow to a more of a ridging pattern aloft with strong 
high pressure aloft settling over the Ohio and mid-Mississippi River 
valleys. The ridge and high pressure aloft will help to steer any 
forcing dynamics well north of Central Indiana, toward Ontario. 
However, a very hot and humid air mass will remain in place through 
the middle of next week. The high aloft will provide subsidence 
through midweek, helping to trap moisture within the lower levels. 
Dew point temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to around 
80 by mid week, resulting in some of the most humid weather Central 
Indiana typically sees during the course of the year. With daily 
high temperatures in the low to mid 90s, heat index values are 
expected reach the mid 100s, resulting some of the hottest 
temperatures of the summer.

Forecast soundings during this stretch show ample CAPE available 
each afternoon through midweek. Thus with the very moist air mass in 
place, daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled 
out. We will continue to include low chances for daily showers and 
storms with during each afternoon and evening.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 652 PM EDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Impacts:

- Convection at BMG and HUF through at least 04Z, lower threat at 
  IND through 06Z
- MVFR cigs 08Z to 14Z

Discussion:  

Shower coverage will continue to increase through 01Z with a gradual 
northward progression of ongoing thunderstorms. Greatest impacts 
will be at BMG with brief LIFR to IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs. Vsbys 
will be closer to IFR and HUF and IND. Additional convection may 
continue through the night but coverage will be minimal and doesn't 
warrant a mention in the TAF at this time. Cigs will drop into MVFR 
to potentially IFR late tonight into tomorrow morning. Winds will be 
generally northwesterly at 4-8kts but will be variable, especially 
during periods of convection.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...White