526 
FXUS64 KMOB 161733
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1233 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Things are looking a little more active for the upcoming days. The 
entire next three days or so will be centered around Invest 93L and 
what comes of that. Currently the mid level center is located near 
the Big Bend Region of Florida embedded in a blob of storms. However, 
it appears that what low level center we had has lost its way. We 
have the body of a potential system but the legs wandered off into 
north Florida and until we grow a new pair of legs this system is 
likely to struggle. Unfortunately, the moisture will still arrive 
eventually leading to a rather soggy next couple of days and the 
potential of heavy rainfall on Thursday. 

Today will be rather similar to Tuesday. Rain chances will likely 
remain confined to the coast and east of I-65 during the afternoon 
where the influences of the Invest are most felt. The biggest thing 
will be the potential for heavy rainfall from slow moving storms. 
PWATS will be above 2 inches with overall likely flow leading to 
slow moving and efficient rain makers. However, with how weak the 
low is and no true focus for training convection, any flooding rain 
would likely be isolated and focused around the poor drainage areas 
of the coastal cities. This is rather noticeable in some of the 
ensemble guidance with some individual members hinting at some 
higher totals approaching 3 to 5 inches but it is sporadic in nature 
with an overall mean of around 1 inch. This does not give much 
confidence in flooding and thus we will not go with any sort of 
flood watch at this time. With the system likely remaining rather 
weak and disheveled and the upper ridge in full control, expect 
temperatures to get warm across areas northwest of I-65. Heat 
indices will likely climb to the 106 to 108 range across 
southeastern Mississippi during the afternoon and overall heat risk 
will be high across this area. Could consider a heat advisory; 
however, hotter times are coming and overall heat stress will likely 
be confined to a rather short period. Thus have differed on issuing 
one. 

Heading into the end of the week, things will remain active with the 
potential tropical low slowly meandering towards Louisiana. The good 
news is guidance is far from enthused with this system as the upper 
ridge continues to push back on the storm and its limited time over 
water/proximity to land should keep things in check. Even if it did 
organize more, the stronger ensemble members take it further south and 
west into the Gulf (more time over water and further from land) 
before making landfall in south central Louisiana well west of our 
area. A stronger storm would also help boost the ridge to our north 
and likely drive the storm west and keep us in the clear from most 
of the nasty stuff. The biggest concern looks to be Thursday as rain 
chances will be highest. PWATS will climb into the 2.25 to 2.5 inch 
range along the northeastern side of the system. Much like 
Wednesday, these moisture levels certainly support a risk of 
efficient rain makers; however, the aforementioned weaker system 
coupled with a stronger ridge really plays against a more widespread 
heavy rain threat without a true focus. IF and thats a big if, the 
system strengthens a little quicker, then a more focused rain threat 
may materialize across coastal Alabama and maybe into southeastern 
Mississippi. Overall guidance isn't enthused and thats probably an 
artifact of the system struggling overall. Rain chances will 
continue through Friday before the ridge builds back in for the 
weekend. A high risk of rip currents will begin on Thursday and last 
til at least Saturday as increasing wave action and onshore flow 
from the invest begins. 

The switch will flip rather quick as we move from wet and soggy to 
hot and sweaty. As whatever this system becomes slowly moves onshore 
across Louisiana, the upper ridge will quickly build over the area 
in its place allowing for the furnace to turn up. With increasing 
subsidence, expect rain chances to decrease through the weekend and 
into early next week but temperatures and heat indices will go up. 
Legit heat advisory material will be possible during this period 
with the combination of remnant moisture from the tropical system 
and the subsidence from the ridge combine to make the great gulf 
coast pressure cooker. Expect high heat risk days for most of the 
area Sunday through Tuesday and potentially extending into the 
middle part of the week. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Weak low pressure system was advancing westward over the FL Big
Bend and will continue westward through the afternoon bringing an
increase in CIG bases 2-5 kft as the feature approaches. Expecting
an increased coverage of SHRA/TSRA from east to west which will 
bring lower cigs. Vsbys briefly restricted with passage of more
organized SHRA/TSRA. Gusty winds likely in and near convection 
will also become a hazard to approaches/departures. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

An increasing moderate to strong southeasterly flow develops on 
Wednesday then becomes southerly through Friday as a low pressure 
system may move across the northern Gulf. Southwesterly flow 
expected for Saturday as the low passes to our west. Please 
continue to follow the National Hurricane Center's information on 
any possible tropical development. BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  88  76  89  75  92  75  94 /  60  90  60  90  20  70  10  50 
Pensacola   78  87  79  90  79  92  79  94 /  60  80  60  80  20  60  10  40 
Destin      80  89  81  91  81  92  81  94 /  60  80  50  70  10  40  10  30 
Evergreen   74  91  74  92  73  95  74  96 /  20  80  20  70  10  50  10  30 
Waynesboro  74  91  73  90  73  94  73  95 /  20  80  20  80  10  60  10  30 
Camden      74  91  74  91  73  93  74  94 /  10  70  10  70  10  50  10  30 
Crestview   74  89  74  92  74  94  74  96 /  30  90  30  80  10  60   0  40 

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday 
     morning for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Thursday morning through Saturday 
     morning for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob