743 
FXUS63 KILX 130510
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1210 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily chances (20-50%) for showers and storms are advertised 
  through the upcoming week, though not everyone will see rain.

- Temperatures will be seasonable through Sunday, then turn 
  warmer this week. A cold front later in the week could bring a 
  period of cooler temperatures by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...A Few Storms Through Late This Afternoon...

An upper trough spinning over the International border north of here 
will push a weak cold front through the area today. Early afternoon 
surface analysis shows the front positioned from roughly Lacon to 
Jacksonville, with west-northwest winds and somewhat lower dewpoints 
behind it. Thunderstorms have developed well ahead of the boundary 
in a weakly sheared, marginally unstable environment over eastern  
Illinois. The threat for this should come to an end here quickly 
as storms push into Indiana.

...Summer-Like Warmth, Daily Precipitation Chances This Week...

The previously mentioned upper trough will begin lifting northward 
into Canada tonight, though broad troughing will remain in place 
through the rest of the weekend. The cold front will drop south of 
the area late tonight and then stall out over southern Illinois. 
Precipitation chances for Sunday have increased from the previous 
forecast due to a further north track of a shortwave trough 
originating over the central Plains. This wave will lift into the
middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday, sending the stationary front
back northward into the area. Scattered storm chances (20-40%) 
will increase by Sunday afternoon with surface ridging putting an 
end to activity by the evening hours.

Daily chances for precipitation will be seen through the new 
week, with the highest chances (40-60%) expected by mid to late 
week. Early week precipitation chances are expected to be lower 
(20-30%) and more isolated due to large-scale subsidence with 
upper ridging.

Temperatures will steadily increase this week as mid-level heights 
climb with the building ridge. Longer range guidance shows a 
stronger cold front moving through late in the week, potentially 
bringing a cool down by the weekend. However, timing differences in 
the front's arrival has resulted in a low predictability forecast.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Light winds under 10 kt will be in place through the period with 
variability in the direction much of the time due to the overall 
low magnitude. Areas of fog will be possible late tonight into 
Sunday morning reducing vsby to 3-5SM. Conditions should return to
VFR by mid to late morning. Then attention will turn to scattered
storm development Sunday afternoon favoring areas along and south
of the I-72 corridor. Precip chances will diminish around sunset 
Sunday evening.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$