AFOS product AFDPSR
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Product Timestamp: 2025-07-07 10:01 UTC

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844 
FXUS65 KPSR 071001
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
301 AM MST Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Generally dry conditions and hotter temperatures are expected
 this week with highs potentially exceeding 115 degrees across 
 many of the lower desert communities by Wednesday

-The hotter temperatures will result in widespread Major HeatRisk with
 Extreme Heat Warnings in effect for much of the region between 
 Tuesday through Thursday

-Slightly cooler temperatures expected by the end of the week
 through next weekend but still remaining above normal
  
&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
Latest objective analysis depicts the subtropical high near the 
International Border with a cutoff low centered just off the central 
CA coast. The cutoff low will continue to limit the westward 
migration of the subtropical high for today and as a result high 
temperatures this afternoon are likely to be rather similar to 
what they were yesterday as readings will top out near 110 degrees
on average across the lower deserts. By Tuesday, the cutoff low 
is projected to weaken allowing the subtropical high to migrate 
westward and become stationed on top of Arizona and strengthen in 
the process as 500 mb height fields increase to 596-598dm. This 
will translate to hotter temperatures with afternoon highs across 
the lower deserts ranging between 109-113 degrees with the hottest
temperatures across the lower deserts of south-central AZ, 
including the Phoenix Metro. As a result, areas of Major HeatRisk 
show up across the majority of the south-central AZ lower deserts 
with Extreme Heat Warnings in effect. Any storm activity through 
Tuesday will be limited to portions of the High Country as well as
portions of southeast AZ as meager moisture profiles and 
increasing subsidence from the strengthening high will hinder any 
potential for more widespread convection. 
  
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
Wednesday is expected to be peak of the extreme heat episode as 
the subtropical high becomes more expansive across the Desert 
Southwest and strengthens slightly. This will translate to 
widespread high temperatures of 115+ degrees across the lower 
deserts with the latest NBM showing a greater than 80% of 
occurrence. Temperatures of this magnitude will result in 
widespread Major HeatRisk across the majority of the region with 
Extreme Heat Warnings in effect across virtually the entire CWA 
with exception of the elevations above 4000 feet east of Phoenix 
where Heat Advisories are effect. Both Phoenix and El Centro have 
a 70% chance of at least tying a daily record high. 

The subtropical high is expected to weaken slightly heading into 
Thursday as what is leftover from the aforementioned cutoff low 
moves eastward through the Great Basin and Intermountain West 
Regions, resulting in a suppression of the high. Temperatures are 
expected to cooldown slightly but still hot enough for areas of 
Major HeatRisk to remain in place with Extreme Heat Warnings 
in effect for all of the lower deserts. Heading into the end of 
the week and next weekend, the high will continue to slowly 
migrate westward towards the southern CA coastline and as a 
result heights aloft will continue to decrease slightly. This will
translate to slightly cooler temperatures, enough to drop 
readings below extreme heat thresholds but still remaining above 
normal as afternoon highs will hover around 110 degrees across the
lower deserts.

With the subtropical high stationed over the region and the flow 
pattern not favorable for deeper moisture advection into the region, 
conditions are expected to remain mostly dry for the next several 
days across the majority of the region with any storm potential  
to be confined across the White Mountains through the southeastern
third of AZ. In fact, virtually all of the EPS and GEFS ensemble 
members do not indicate any measurable rain potential for the 
lower deserts until at the earliest the middle of next week when 
potentially the subtropical high migrates into the Four Corners 
Region, resulting in a more favorable flow pattern for deeper 
moisture advection and thus more widespread storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0505Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT: 
No major weather issues will exist through Monday evening with 
mid/high cloud decks primarily relegated to the mountains east of 
the terminals. Confidence remains excellent that wind trends will be 
similar to the past 24 hours with minor afternoon gustiness, and a 
more definitive overnight shift to an easterly drainage component 
towards sunrise.  

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather issues will exist through Monday evening under 
clear skies. Confidence remains excellent that wind trends will be 
similar to the past 24 hours primarily varying between SE and SW, 
albeit with periods of variability during morning hours. Speeds may 
become somewhat enhanced at KBLH Monday afternoon. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Above normal temperatures will persist throughout the week as 
lower deserts highs exceed 110 degrees. MinRH values will 
generally be in the low to mid teens with MaxRH values ranging
between 25-45% for most of the area, with the exception across
Imperial and southern Yuma Counties where periodic gulf surges 
will result in MaxRH values to exceed 50%. The overall wind 
pattern will follow the familiar diurnal trends, with some 
afternoon/early evening breeziness. Very minimal rain chances will
exist throughout the week with CWR <10% through at least next 
weekend. 

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM MST Thursday 
     for AZZ530>533-535-536.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Thursday for 
     AZZ534-537>540-542>544-546-548-550-551-553>555-559-560.

     Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ557-558-
     563.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ541-
     545-547-549-552-556-561-562.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday 
     for CAZ560>570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Lojero 
AVIATION...18 
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero