National Weather Service Raw Text Product

629 
FXUS66 KLOX 031539
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
839 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...03/356 AM.

Near normal weather conditions are anticipated through this
weekend with continued night to morning low clouds and fog near
the coast. The first significant widespread heatwave of the 
summer is favored for mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...03/325 AM.

Mild weather with a very slight warming trend each day is 
expected through the weekend. Continued warm temperatures are
forecast for inland areas, with cooler conditions near the 
coasts. Daytime highs will generally be in the 70s near the coast,
80s coastal valleys and 90s lower mountains to the interior. 
Temperatures will generally be just below normal for much of the 
region, and within a couple degrees of normal across the LA Basin.
Overnight to morning marine layer clouds and fog will continue 
each day extending from the beaches into the coastal valleys.
Areas of dense fog will be possible by the weekend 

Far interior areas will continue to be dry during the day with 
breezy onshore winds during the afternoons and evenings, as is  
typical for this time of year. Additionally northerly Sundowner 
winds are likely to return to southwest Santa Barbara County this
Friday night and persist through at least the weekend. Gusts of 25
to 45 mph will be common across the typically windy areas, with
chances for local gusts of 50 mph. These downsloping winds may
result in areas of fire weather concerns for the Santa Ynez Range
and portion of the adjacent coast. 

The Madre Fire is currently burning in southeast San Luis Obispo 
County and creating a significant amount of smoke for the Cuyama 
Valley. Upper level smoke is currently drifting far south from its
origin over Santa Barbara County and western portions of Ventura 
County. Smokey skies may be visible from portions of LA County 
today, though it is likely to stay elevated well above the 
surface.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...03/356 AM.

For mid-to-late next week confidence in above normal temperatures 
is quite high, as mostly all models favor a strong ridge of high 
pressure building for the region. There remains some uncertainty 
in the severity of this upcoming heat event however. Tuesday 
temperatures are likely to bump upwards, with much of LA County 
reaching several degrees above normal. Heat is then likely to 
build over the region, peaking Wednesday or Thursday, with the 
potential to last into next weekend. Triple digit heat (100 
degrees or greater) is favored for interior valleys and deserts, 
with a small chance for the warmest areas to reach or exceed 110 
degrees. Heat Advisories are likely to be issued for warmest 
valleys, with around a 20 percent chance of Extreme Heat 
Watch/Warnings becoming necessary for some valleys, mountains, 
and/or deserts. Hazardous heat impacts are possible for all areas,
except perhaps the immediate coasts, where marine layer clouds 
will play a great role in the temperature. Anyone working 
outdoors, living without air conditioning, or belonging to groups 
sensitive to heat, are advised to stay up to date with the 
forecast and prepare for an extended period of above normal 
temperatures. 

There is a chance for monsoonal mositure to reach the region next
week, with around a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms focused 
across the mountains and deserts as early as Tuesday for Los 
Angeles/Ventura Counties, extending across the remaining interior 
areas Wednesday into late next week. Dry lightning fire starts, 
gusty winds, and locally heavy rain are potential monsoon 
thunderstorm hazards.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1135Z.

At 1122Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2200 ft deep. The top of 
the inversion was around 5200 feet with a temperature of 23 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KWJF and KPMD. 

Low confidence in TAF for KPRB through 17Z. There is a 40% chance
VFR conds prevail. High confidence thereafter.

Moderate to high confidence in remaining TAFs. Dissipation of cigs
may be off by 2 hours, and coastal sites south of Point Conception
may not clear today. There is a 40% chance KOXR clears after 20Z,
but cigs may vary from SCT to BKN through the afternoon. Lower 
confidence in minimum flight cat tonight, thus flight cats may be 
off by one cat. Arrival of cigs may be off by 3 hours. There is a
30% chance of no low clouds tonight at KBUR and KVNY.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Timing of dissipation of cigs
may be off by 2 hours, and there is a 20% chance for BKN015-025
cigs to continue through the afternoon and don't clear. Arrival 
of cigs may be off by 3 hours and lower confidence on minimum 
cig height (+/- 300 ft). Moderate confidence in any east wind 
component remaining below 8 kts through 18Z. Higher confidence in
east wind component below 6 kts tonight.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20% chance of no 
low clouds forming tonight.

&&

.MARINE...03/838 AM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are likely across the Outer
Waters much of the time through the 4th of July Weekend. SCA 
winds are also likely each afternoon and evening for the nearshore
waters along the Central Coast Friday through the weekend, with
local wind gusts to 25 kt across far northern portions of PZZ645
this evening. Local Gale Force wind gusts are possible through 
Sunday, with best chances around the western Channel Islands and 
in the northern Outer Waters Friday afternoon and evening (30% 
chance). Seas will build to 8 to 10 feet at times through the 
weekend.

Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate 
(30-40%) chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening
Friday through the weekend across the western portion of the 
Santa Barbara Channel. Local gusts to 20 kts may occur near Point
Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel during the aforementioned 
time.

Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters, especially north 
of Point Conception overnight and in the morning hours through
this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday evening
      for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/Black
SYNOPSIS...Ciliberti/RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox