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003 FXUS64 KMOB 291151 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 651 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 An upper level shortwave system has settled over the eastern Southeast, with another over the Caribbean along with an active upper pattern over the northern half of the Conus. All this upper energy comes together into the coming week, organizing a mean upper trough over the eastern Conus, with a bit deeper upper low over the Gulf. In combination with a very moist airmass over the Gulf and Southeast, the forecast area and nearby enters into a wet pattern, with scattered to numerous daily showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday. This convection is expected to form south of the coast overnight, then shift inland during the day. Instability is modest for this time of the year (MLCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range, with DCapes dropping into the 200-500J/kg range) through this period, limiting the chances of strong to severe storms. The wet airmass along with modest instability will allow the expected convection to be efficient rainers. Weak deep layer winds will limit storm movement, allowing localized very heavy rains to cause localized water issues, mainly over our coastal counties and nearby. Tuesday night through Wednesday, a strong upper level shortwave system moves into the eastern mean upper trough. A weak cold front moves south over the Southeast in response, with a significantly drier airmass behind. An upper ridge builds north over the Plains mid week, shifting itself and the eastern upper trough east through the end of the week. Shortwave energy at the base of the eastern upper trough pinches off, forming an upper circulation off the Florida Atlantic coast. PoPs drop through the end of the week into the weekend in response. The wet pattern Sunday through Tuesday will drop high temperatures to below seasonal norms. Upper 80s to low 90s today will drop into the mid to upper 80s for Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures rise through the end of the week as the upper ridge approaches, rising into the low to mid 90s by the weekend. Heat indices topping out in the upper 90s to low 100s today drop into the mid 90s to around 100 for Monday and Tuesday. Heat indices then rise through the end of the week, though the drier airmass will temper the rise. 100-107 degree heat indices are expected by Saturday. Low temperatures are expected to see a more steady day to day curve, with low to mid 70s expected over and north of I-10, mid 70s to near 80 expected over areas south of I-10 to the coast. A larger tidal cycle will work with a modest onshore swell to bring a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents to area beaches the beginning of the week. The Rip Risk drops to a Low Risk the latter half of the week as the tidal cycle decreases and the onshore swell drops. Looking well outside of the Southeast, TD2 has formed over the Bay of Campeche, and is expected to move northwest over Mexico, well southwest of the forecast area. No effects are expected from this storm at this time. /16 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 VFR conditions are generally expected throughout most of the day with brief restrictions (lower ceilings and visibility) during any thunderstorms today. Isolated storms along the coastline this morning will continue for the next 2-3 hours before scattered showers and storms develop this afternoon into the early evening hours across the entire area. Calm winds will increase to 5-10 knots by late morning and turn southerly to southwesterly by early afternoon before becoming light and variable again this evening. 07/mb && .MARINE... Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 No impacts are expected other than locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /16 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 90 73 88 72 87 72 91 71 / 70 60 90 60 90 60 80 40 Pensacola 89 75 85 74 86 74 89 74 / 70 60 90 70 90 60 80 50 Destin 90 77 88 77 88 77 90 77 / 70 70 90 80 90 70 80 50 Evergreen 92 71 88 70 88 70 91 70 / 70 40 90 40 90 40 70 20 Waynesboro 91 71 87 71 89 71 91 70 / 60 30 80 40 80 30 40 10 Camden 90 71 86 70 86 71 88 69 / 60 30 80 40 90 40 50 10 Crestview 91 71 86 70 88 70 91 71 / 80 50 100 60 100 50 90 30 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob