National Weather Service Raw Text Product

088 
FXUS65 KCYS 281804
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1204 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected in central and
  northern Carbon County on Saturday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Saturday with a
  very limited risk of stronger activity, primarily for the
  Nebraska Panhandle.

- Warm temperatures and daily coverage of scattered afternoon
  and evening showers and thunderstorms expected for Sunday
  through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

A few thunderstorms are noted this afternoon across the Nebraska
Panhandle with scattered weak echoes further west into Wyoming.
Overall environmental analysis indicates instability is limited
to just the panhandle, with a much more prime environment for
severe potential just east of our CWA. With conditions unlikely
to strengthen over the next couple of hours, it's doubtful 
we'll see much more than the activity already ongoing, perhaps a
few scattered showers or maybe another isolated storm or two, 
but overall severe potential will be minimal at best and peaking
currently. That being said, our usual suspects of virga producing
some stronger to near severe winds could occur in Wyoming, 
supported by inverted V soundings. Look out for brief periods of
strong breezes. Meanwhile further west dry conditions alongside
breezy winds and RH values into the low teens to single digits 
are promoting critical fire weather conditions, with another 
chance of this tomorrow though winds will be a bit tempered 
compared to today.

Overnight precipitation and winds will wane. Into Saturday, a
cold front stalling out into our region will help be the focal
point for new shower and thunderstorm development, but once
again a lack of moisture will hinder any potential activity and
the marginal risk for stronger to severe thunderstorms has been
nearly removed from our area because of this. A similar setup to
today including gusty virga showers will once again be possible
though in an inverted V environment, with this lack of moisture
also fueling another potential red flag environment for a
smaller portion of Carbon County.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 218 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Sunday...Somewhat cooler temperatures in the wake of a cold front 
and with an increase in cloud cover. Looks like adequate low and mid 
level moisture for scattered late day showers and thunderstorms, 
mainly east of I-25.

Monday...Temperatures about the same as on Sunday, with low level 
upslope east winds and 700 mb temperatures near 10 Celsius. Despite 
adequate low and mid level moisture, we should see a decrease in 
coverage of showers and thunderstorms due to ridging aloft.

Tuesday...A warming trend develops as 700 mb temperatures rise to 
near 15 Celsius. Adequate moisture aloft for isolated late day 
showers and thunderstorms, mainly east of I-25.

Wednesday...The warming trend continues as 700 mb temperatures reach 
16 Celsius. Moisture looks similar to Tuesday, thus we anticipate 
isolated late day showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday-Friday...Similar temperatures to Wednesday with 700 mb 
temperatures near 16 Celsius. Adequate low and mid level moisture 
again, thus isolated to scattered late day showers and thunderstorms 
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Mostly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours, with
this visibility disrupted primarily by strong thunderstorms.
Storms are expected to be possible at all sites, though most
likely for KBFF/KCDR, while storms are KRWL may be high based
and dry with just thunder. Any storms that move over or near
sites will cause winds to become gusty and erratic. Cloud bases
drop to around 10k feet with precipitation today, but could
lower further near or under any storms. Storms will linger the
longest tonight for KCDR/KAIA, with precipitation possible
through 08Z. Winds should lessen later tonight into tomorrow
morning after activity settles. Finally, a surge of moisture
plus a stalling boundary could produce lowered CIGs in the
Nebraska Panhandle for the sites impacted by lingering
precipitation, with decks dropping to around 30-50k feet; other
sites meanwhile should see higher based clouds into tomorrow
morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ421-422-
     427.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...CG