National Weather Service Raw Text Product

320 
FXUS63 KABR 271733 AAD
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1233 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The entire forecast area has been classified as SLIGHT RISK (2
  of 5) for severe weather this afternoon/evening. Large hail (2-
  3")/Winds (60-80mph) are the main threats, however we also have
  the potential for tornadoes mainly between the Missouri and 
  James Rivers. 

- SLIGHT RISK (2 of 5) again for Saturday, mainly east of a line  
  from Aberdeen to Pierre, with a large hail and wind threat.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Allowed the dense fog advisory to expire this morning. Stratus is
hanging on across the east, but visibilities have generally
improved. Models are not handling the morning convection well.
Hourly pop tweaks are expected. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Stratus and some fog are already in place across the CWA, but for 
how long? Low level flow transitions from northeasterly to south-
southeasterly, a trajectory from which the stratus cu-off now 
resides. Looking at the 00Z ABR RAOB its noted that the cloud 
thickness is only about 1.5kft, so if we get any breaks they would 
erode quickly.  Thus, the premise that CAMS should dissipate stratus 
rather quickly this morning with some pretty big jumps between 16-
18Z to the northeast in the HREF seems adequate and the expectation 
is that stratus will not play a significant part in the hindrance 
of the later day severe weather threat. 

500mb flow this afternoon is marked by a departing shallow mid-level 
ridge and a western CONUS/Rockies shallow trough. Embedded within 
this flow is a very subtle wave over western North Dakota tailing 
down into northwest South Dakota, and while its subtle at least 
aloft is primarily neutral flow aloft. As for the storm environment, 
shear in the mid/upper levels is mainly unidirectional at 20 to 
45kts, with light low level southeasterlies around convective 
initiation. 0-6km shear is about 50kts with a core in central/north 
central SD of 0-1km SRH thats running up to about 100m2/s2 this 
afternoon/evening... however a transition will occur with loss of 
daytime heating, and 0-1km SRH will be on the increase overnight as 
1/2km winds increase to 45-50kts by 06Z, up to around 200m2/s2. HREF 
probability of CAPE in excess of 3500j/kg is 60-70% so plenty of 
instability. So what's the MO for convection later today? Shear 
profiles suggest supercell characteristics, with strong RFD thanks 
to westerly mid-level flow and dry air at 10kft. Tornado potential 
isn't anything to write home about with the low 0-1km shear, but a 
transition in the evening with that low level jet means there is a 
window in which discrete storms would have a tornado potential 
before becoming elevated. High CAPE and shear also presents us with 
a large hail threat.

As for timing/locations, the Missouri valley will be the focus 
primarily this afternoon/evening. A lee low sets up in Wyoming, with 
broad southeasterly low level flow presenting a slight upslope 
across the state. The lack of low level focus and generalistic upper 
level support means confidence on timing/location is generally low, 
though CAMS support plenty of evidence that storms will develop and 
move across the Dakotas this afternoon/evening. Storms continue 
east into the early morning thanks to the low level jet, although 
weak upper level support again means low confidence on 
coverage/timing.

Saturday, shear remains strong at about 40kts in the HREF. CAPE is 
also again up around 4000j/kg. So the main question is where has the 
lee low/inverted trough stalled as the focus for convection to 
develop? We also have the issue of the flow aloft only being weakly 
diffluent and relying on another weak/subtle shortwave to provide the 
upper level support. Focus remains as per previous forecasts across 
far eastern South Dakota/western Minnesota. 

A more pronounced trough moves through Sunday with early frontal 
passage. This is followed by a weak, shallow and slow moving high 
pressure system so later half of Sunday through into early Tuesday 
should be dry. That is followed by some ridging with northwest flow 
aloft for mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Showers are tapering off west of the KABR. Expect them to
dissipate by 19z. KATY will break out of the stratus around 19z as
well. The possibility of thunderstorms this evening is not so
clear cut. Weak forcing may keep most of the activity north (nose
of theta-e and weak trough/shortwave) and south (llj) of the
region. There is ample instability for storms to propagate if they
manage to fire off, though. Added prob30 groups for KABR and KATY
for now, but may need to clarify KMBG and KPIR as we near 0z. 

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...20