National Weather Service Raw Text Product

176 
FXUS66 KMTR 270011
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
511 PM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 157 PM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

An inland warming trend Friday and Saturday as high pressure
builds and the marine layer compresses. By Sunday a weak low off
the coast will bring stronger onshore flow and deepen the marine
layer. The low will keep temperatures on the cool side of normal,
especially inland with a continued marine layer along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 157 PM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Seasonal weather pattern continues this afternoon with sunny and
warm weather inland while a 1200 foot marine layer persists along
the coast with temps still hovering in the upper 50s and lower
60s. Still not seeing any real hot temps inland with lower 90s
confined to interior Monterey county. Northerly gradient from
SFO-ACV is now in excess of 4 mb with less stratus off the Sonoma
coast. Expect the shallow marine layer to slowly reorganize this
evening and spread into the coastal valleys overnight.

Building shortwave type ridge for Friday will continue to compress
the marine layer and lead to an inland warming trend Friday
afternoon. Expect to see lower 90s for the interior
North/South/East Bay for the first time this week. Microclimates
should be in full effect with temps ranging from 60 at Ocean Beach
to around 95 for the interior valleys. It'll finally feel a 
little more summer like inland Friday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 157 PM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

No big changes into Saturday with the ridge, so expect a shallow
marine layer and another day of inland temps in the 90s but the
coast and bays will remain mild to warm with temps running near
normal. 

By Saturday night into Sunday the models are coming into agreement
that a weak low will spin up offshore, west of San Francisco. This
will likely induce a stronger southwesterly onshore wind pattern
on Sunday (kind of like a modified southerly surge). In addition
the upper low will likely deepen the marine layer. Therefore
expect a noted cooling trend for Sunday, especially places like
Santa Cruz (north side of Monterey Bay), Napa and Sonoma valleys
where southwesterly onshore push will be efficient for pushing up
those valleys. 

Worth noting that on Sunday night the upper flow turns
southeasterly across NorCal. Gfs MUCAPE shows a few 100 J/kg but 
it doesnt align with moisture. Best forecast keeps t-storms well 
to our north and east but will monitor closely as it depends on 
exact location of upper low. Usual scenario with these setups 
would be convection over the Northern Sierra and the coastal 
ranges from Mendocino northward.

The upper low looks to take up residence for much of next week per
the latest long range models. That would mean temps running near
to a few degrees below normal for late June/early July with a
fairly deep marine layer. Thus as we head towards 4th of July not
seeing any abnormally hot weather for the Bay Area with any precip
likely staying over the Sierra and southern deserts as monsoon
moisture slowly starts to eject out of AZ and Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 511 PM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Stratus is pushing back into coastal areas, particularly along the 
Monterey Peninsula. The marine layer looks to hold around 1000 ft 
tonight with TAFs largely following a persistence based forecast for 
where stratus will return. Highest confidence in CIGs returning to 
HAF, MRY, and SNS with low to moderate confidence in CIGs at least 
temporarily returning to OAK, SFO, and APC overnight. CIGs are 
likely to be on the border of MVFR-IFR with the TAFs leaning towards 
MVFR given more sites trended towards MVFR last night. For coastal 
sites, CIGs will be more on the border of LIFR-IFR with some 
potential for fog to develop at HAF and MRY. Winds generally stay 
onshore through the period with breezy winds during the 
afternoon/evening and lighter, at times variable winds overnight. 

Vicinity of SFO...Moderate confidence that MVFR CIGs will build in 
overnight with some potential for IFR CIGs during the early morning 
hours (12Z-16Z). Confidence is low as to including IFR CIGs in the 
current TAF but will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as 
needed. Conditions look to improve around 18/19Z with clear skies 
through the afternoon hours. There is some potential for stratus to 
return tomorrow after the end of this TAF period but confidence is 
low at this time. Breezy onshore winds return during the 
afternoon/evening with gusts to around 20 knots expected.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR to LIFR conditions continue through 
tomorrow morning with moderate confidence that IFR CIGs will return 
tonight through tomorrow morning. There is some potential for 
lowered visibility and fog at MRY with visibilities dropping to 
around 3SM overnight. Conditions improve mid to late tomorrow 
morning with SNS clearing around 18-19Z. Some uncertainty remains as 
to if MRY will clear tomorrow morning, for now leaning towards 
stratus persisting but there is some potential for CIGs to clear 
after 19Z. Breezy onshore winds continue during the 
afternoon/evening before lighter, more variable winds develop 
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes with near-gale force gusts
will continue through Friday. Gale force gusts can be expected
near the coastal jet regions of Point Reyes and Point Sur this
afternoon and evening. Moderate to rough seas will also continue
through Friday, with northwesterly winds easing over the weekend.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT 
     Friday for CAZ006-506-508.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras 
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...RGass

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