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635 FXUS65 KBOU 262109 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 309 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot Friday and Saturday with isolated afternoon storms. - Cooler Sunday and Monday with higher coverage of storms and a threat for some of these storms to be strong to severe. && .DISCUSSION /Through Thursday/... Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Water vapor satellite shows dry air over Colorado with southwest flow aloft. There is some weak subsidence that is limiting convection this afternoon. However, a few stray storms are forming over the Palmer Divide and east to northern Lincoln County. High resolution models are also starting to come into better agreement that showers will form over the foothills late this afternoon and into the evening and these showers will move over the I-25 corridor this evening. Brief moderate rain with gusty winds will be possible with these showers. PoPs were increased to get a mention of showers in the forecast this evening. Temperatures aloft will increase on Friday as light zonal flow aloft will be in place. This will allow high temperatures to the reach the low 90s across the I-25 corridor and plains. Model guidance also suggests a weak low level convergent boundary will form generally from Deer Trail to Julesburg. Isolated storms will form along this boundary by the late afternoon. Soundings show a large boundary layer up to around 600 mb with dry adiabatic lapse rates. This suggests strong wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible with the strongest storms especially north and east of Akron. Elsewhere, a few light showers and weak storms could form over the higher terrain and move onto the adjacent plains. Saturday will be very similar to Friday as hot temperatures and isolated storms will again be possible. Gusty winds will be the main threat from these storms. A cold front seems likely to move through the northeast plains on Sunday bringing northeast winds. The majority of guidance indicates dew points may be in the 60s and upper 50s behind this front. Given the upslope winds and moderate instability, it is expected that storm coverage will increase with 30-40% coverage. An upper level jet will pass to the north of Colorado on Sunday and may help to increase the deep layer shear close to the WY/CO and NE/CO borders. Some storms may be strong to severe in far northern Colorado with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Monday will have east-southeast winds across the plains with healthy dew points. Moderate instability will be under a strong cap due to a ridge and warm temperatures aloft. The upslope flow may help to generate storms in the foothills but it is uncertain if the storms will be able to survive on the plains. Monday will be the coolest day of the 7 day forecast. A ridge aloft will strengthen on Tuesday and Wednesday and highs will increase to normal. Isolated storms will likely develop over the higher terrain each day. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday/... Issued at 1158 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Light winds today expected to increase out of the southeast in the late afternoon. Recent high resolution model runs have been more consistent in showing showers over the terminals this evening. While these are unlikely to impact the terminals, it is possible that wind gusts up to 25 knots occur. There will be normal drainage flow tonight and light winds Friday morning. In the afternoon on Friday, storms to the southeast of Denver will likely push an outflow boundary through that has moderate southeast winds with gusts up to 30 knots. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Danielson AVIATION...Danielson