National Weather Service Raw Text Product

694 
FXUS61 KCLE 261426
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1026 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will attempt to lift north over northern Ohio and
Lake Erie as low pressure tracks east across the Upper Midwest
today. This low will extend a frontal boundary across the area 
late Friday into Saturday. The boundary will lift north as a
warm front Sunday into Monday before the next cold front 
crosses the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The forecast remains on track for today with mostly sunny
conditions this morning followed by scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. It looks like activity will develop first
along the convergent boundary across Northeast Ohio early this 
afternoon. Late this afternoon a piece of shortwave energy 
moving around the ridge will reach Northwest Ohio with showers 
and thunderstorms expanding in coverage, especially after 4 PM. 
A concern remains for isolated damaging wind gusts given the 
moderate instability and heavy rainfall with thunderstorm this 
afternoon. 

Previous discussion...Warm, humid, and unsettled weather will 
continue through the end of the week. A frontal boundary over 
northern Ohio early this morning will attempt to lift north over
Lake Erie this afternoon. Scattered diurnally-influenced 
showers and thunderstorms are likely this afternoon with the 
highest PoPs inland from Lake Erie. Like the last couple of 
days, a moist and unstable air mass will be over the region with
PWAT values exceeding 1.5 inches and MLCAPE values to around 
2000-2500 J/kg (with locally higher MLCAPE values possible 
across NW OH) expected during peak diurnal instability this 
afternoon. Mid- level dry air and DCAPE values as high as around
700 J/kg will result in another risk of damaging gusts 
associated with wet downbursts today, as outlined in a Marginal 
Risk of severe weather across the entire area. The high moisture
content and weak steering flow parallel to the frontal boundary
could lead to slow-moving/training precip with locally heavy 
rainfall possible. Localized flooding can't be ruled out 
primarily in locations that receive repeated rounds of heavy 
rain. There's still some uncertainty in the coverage/placement 
of showers and thunderstorms since shear will be somewhat 
marginal and PoPs will likely be refined in future updates. 

PoPs taper off with the loss of diurnal heating tonight but
there will still be a small chance of periodic showers and 
perhaps an isolated thunderstorm overnight. PoPs once again rise
by late afternoon Friday as an upper trough and surface cold 
front approach from the west. Shear may be a bit more optimal in
western zones Friday afternoon, however the best forcing/PoPs 
probably won't arrive until after peak diurnal instability 
Friday evening.

The heat and humidity will stick around through Friday with
highs in the mid to upper 80s in NW PA/NE OH and upper 80s to
lower 90s across NW OH anticipated each day. Maximum heat 
indices at inland locations will be in the 90s, although a few 
spots west of I-71 may briefly approach 100 degrees. Any 
showers/storms ahead of or during peak heating would result in 
slightly cooler temperatures/heat indices. Tonight's lows will 
be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast period will be a transitional period as the 
upper ridge and heat dome over the region will push southeast as the 
pattern breaks down and a trough will enter the Great Lakes region 
for early next week. The first part of the weekend will bear the 
brunt of this transitional phase, as a cold front will move through 
the forecast area, which will offer elevated storm chances on Friday 
night into Saturday. Storm chances may be on a downward trend on 
Friday night as the area will be in the minimum of the diurnal 
cycle. However, the front will be over the area on Saturday and 
likely to categorical PoPs are in the forecast, as storms will be 
back on the uptrend until the front clears on Saturday evening. High 
pressure will enter behind the front and allow for dry weather for 
Saturday night through Sunday night unless the incoming trough 
speeds up, which is trending less likely. Temperatures on Saturday 
will be cooler than recent days with convection in the region and 
highs will average in the low to mid 80s. Highs on Sunday will be 
back into the mid to upper 80s with dry conditions and plenty of 
sunshine allowing for temperatures to trend warmer.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday into Tuesday appears unsettled at this time with an upper 
trough digging into the Great Lakes region and a cold front swinging 
through the region, supporting more showers and storms. Coverage 
appears pretty good on Monday and have likely PoPs across the area; 
will need to monitor for severe storm chances on Monday, given the 
ample instability across the region and good synoptic energy with 
the trough. There could be some residual storms on Tuesday, 
depending on the final upper trough and cold front timing. 
Otherwise, the forecast will trend quiet for the start of July with 
high pressure building into the region and subsidence aloft on the 
back side of the upper trough. High temperatures will be back toward 
normal in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Generally expect dry weather with mostly VFR conditions through
this morning. Patchy fog may produce non-VFR visibilities at 
inland terminals and along the lakeshore of NE OH/NW PA for the
first couple of hours of the TAF period, but anticipate any
lingering fog to lift as diurnal mixing kicks in. Scattered 
diurnal cumulus will develop later this morning into this 
afternoon before scattered diurnally- driven 
showers/thunderstorms develop near a frontal boundary this 
afternoon into this evening. Generally think that timing will be
between 18Z and 00Z, but convection may be poorly organized and
there's still quite a bit of uncertainty in coverage and 
placement of precipitation. Nonetheless, all Ohio TAF sites have
at least a PROB30 for showers and thunderstorms for a period 
this afternoon with VCTS where confidence is slightly higher at 
western terminals. Showers may linger in the vicinity of KTOL 
through late evening. Will likely need to make amendments to the
TAFs as confidence increases in either direction through this 
afternoon. Similar to the last couple of days, any 
showers/storms that move directly over terminals will be capable
of producing variable and gusty winds and non-VFR visibilities.
VFR is expected outside of precip.

Non-thunderstorm winds will be variable and under 10 knots
through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered afternoon and evening 
showers and thunderstorms through Monday with highest the 
chance of showers/thunderstorms occurring during the afternoon 
hours on Friday, Saturday, and Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Today will be fairly similar to previous days with light offshore 
flow being favored for the first part of the day with a lake breeze 
developing and flow flipping more onshore during the afternoon and 
evening hours. A system approaching the region for Friday will allow 
for elevated offshore flow on Friday, starting from the southeast 
and slowly shifting to the southwest then west on Saturday with a 
cold frontal passage. Some 2 to 3 ft waves could develop with the 
westerly flow on Saturday, but conditions should stay below the need 
for any headline. High pressure will return to the region for 
Sunday, allowing for light and variable flow. The next system will 
approach for Monday and Tuesday with southwest flow favored ahead of 
the cold front on Monday and westerly flow behind the front on 
Tuesday. Waves could again get elevated to 2 to 3 ft on Tuesday with 
the westerly flow on Tuesday, but still not too concerned about any 
marine headline needs.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...15
NEAR TERM...10/15
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Sefcovic
AVIATION...15
MARINE...Sefcovic