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997 FXUS65 KBOU 261131 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 531 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier Thursday through Sunday with warming temperatures and only isolated late day showers and thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/... Issued at 255 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Showers and storms have formed this afternoon (Wednesday) with the strongest storms near the Cheyenne Ridge and Palmer Divide. Across the Denver metro, cloud cover and cooler temperatures are responsible for keeping the showers and storms quite weak. There may be weak storms that form over the metro later this afternoon but they are not expected to be severe. Across the Palmer Divide, moderate instability has lead to strong storms to develop but they are struggling to reach severe limits due to the lack of deep layer shear. A storm or two could reach severe limits in Elbert and Lincoln Counties but the majority of storms will stay below severe limits there. In Weld County near the Cheyenne Ridge, there are a couple of strong to severe storms forming. There are stronger 500-300 mb winds in far northern Colorado which is providing better deep layer shear close to 40 knots. Given moderate instability with mixed-layer CAPE around 1,500 j/kg, storms in the Weld and Morgan Counties may become briefly severe with large hail the primary concern. Later this afternoon, storms will likely congeal into a line/MCS and heads towards the far northeast corner of Colorado. High resolution model guidance is in good agreement that this MCS will pose a severe wind threat especially in Logan, Sedgwick, and Phillips Counties. These storms will also produce heavy rain and it is possible the far northeast corner sees localized flooding. QPF and PoPs were increased over the northeast corner this evening. Over the next few days, mid to upper level heights will increase over Colorado with upper level temperatures increasing as well. There will be zonal flow and drier air moving in aloft so the chance for storms will be around 10 percent. The only day of the next three days that may see organized convection is on Friday near the eastern Colorado/Nebraska border. Some weak surface convergence may be enough to generate a line of storms. These could pose a severe threat in Sedgwick and Phillips Counties. Otherwise, high temperatures will increase each of the next three days with the mid 90s expected across the plains on Saturday. A low level cold front will move across the area Sunday afternoon. This will likely cool temperatures a tad on Sunday and with northeast, upslope winds increasing the chance for storms. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Monday will also be cooler with a chance of storms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday/... Issued at 530 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025 VFR through tonight. Southerly winds overnight will become easterly this afternoon. There may be a few hours of variable winds under 10 knots this morning. Only isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Danielson AVIATION...Gimmestad