019 
FXUS63 KIND 251337
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
937 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- *HEAT ADVISORY* continues through late day Friday

- Heat indices up to 100-107 degrees and low temperatures near or 
  above 75 degrees through Friday

- Scattered daily afternoon showers/t-storms, isolated strong to 
  severe wind gusts are possible

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

No significant changes needed to the forecast this morning. Radar 
shows an isolated shower just northeast of our CWA along with series 
of gravity waves moving southeastward towards the Indy metro. These 
waves, originating from overnight convection across Illinois, should 
not cause any impacts to sensible weather through the morning. 
Overall, we continue to expect hot and humid weather with scattered 
showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE PERIOD

- Scattered diurnal showers and storms with the potential for 
  isolated strong to severe wind gusts 

Expect hot and muggy conditions again today with the overall weather 
pattern remaining similar to yesterday. A heat advisory is in effect 
through the period as heat indices are likely to peak around 100-
106F in most locations by this afternoon. Little to no relief from 
humidity the past few nights will also exacerbate the heat threat so 
make sure to take extra precautions if you are planning to spend 
time outdoors. Drink plenty of water to stay hydrated, take frequent 
breaks in AC or shaded areas, and limit time outside. Also check on 
neighbors and relatives. 

Scattered diurnal showers and storms will develop later today as 
daytime heating over an anomalously moist PBL promotes strong 
destabilization. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are possible 
as forecast soundings depict high DCAPE values supported by steep 
low-level lapse rates and mid-level dry air. Weak deep-layer shear 
should result in storms quickly collapsing. Any stronger 
thunderstorms that begin to collapse will pose the greatest threat 
for downbursts. Locally heavy rainfall and lightning are also 
threats from storms today. 

Latest CAMs suggest greater coverage of storms today compared to 
yesterday. This is likely due to deeper moisture in place and the 
upper ridge overhead gradually weakening. Convection should 
diminish after sunset as the loss of daytime heating leads to the 
PBL stabilizing. Expect highs to generally reach the low 90s 
during the afternoon with lows in the 70s again tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

...Heat Advisory Continues through Friday...

Thursday and Friday -

More of the continued hot and humid weather appears to remain in 
place across Central Indiana during this time. The strong area of 
upper level high pressure in place over the southeastern states will 
remain in place through Friday along with its associated area of 
surface high pressure. This will result in continued hot and humid 
southerly flow into Central Indiana, which will bring daily chances 
for isolated, diurnal and unorganized afternoon and evening showers 
and storms. The main jet flow will remain well north of Indiana, 
helping to prevent the arrival of any organized forcing. Thus more 
persistence type weather will be expected with highs in the low to 
mid 90s and low to mid 100s for the heat index. Again, afternoon 
shower and thunderstorm coverage will be small and low pops will be 
used.

Saturday Through Monday -

The strong upper ridging looks to begin breaking down on Saturday, 
leading to a more zonal flow across the Great Lakes. A pair of weak 
short waves are then shown to push toward and across Indiana on 
Saturday and again on Monday. Given little change to our hot and 
humid air mass in place across Central Indiana, this organized 
forcing allows for better confidence for more widespread afternoon 
and evening showers and thunderstorms on each day. Also, additional 
cloud cover and a lack of subsidence expected through the weekend 
should result in slightly cooler temperatures, which at this time, 
should allow us to forgo a continuation of the Heat Advisory, at 
least for now. Will trend to high chance pops on both Saturday and 
Monday afternoons.

Tuesday -

Models here have trended toward upper ridging in place over the high 
plains and a trough over the Great Lakes, previously beginning the 
day in Indiana. This will result in northwest flow in place aloft 
and allow for cooler and less humid air to arrive. Furthermore a cold 
front is suggested to be exiting Indiana in the morning, leading to 
NW surface flow. For the moment, some pops will be needed in the 
morning on Tuesday due to possible timing adjustments on the frontal 
passage, but confidence is growing here for a return to near normal 
high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 625 AM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered showers and storms after 19Z today

Discussion:  

Expect predominately VFR conditions through the period. However, 
scattered showers and storms are possible after 19Z. Brief MVFR or 
worse visibilities will be the main impact along with potential TSRA 
that could strike a TAF sites, however confidence for coverage and 
precise timing remains low due to the diurnal nature of the 
convection and weak overall flow. 

Loss of heating this evening will lead to diminishing convection. 
Look for winds to remain light and out of the S/SW during the 
period. Storms this afternoon and evening could contain strong gusty 
winds though.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ021-028>031-035>049-
051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Melo