National Weather Service Raw Text Product

946 
FXUS63 KABR 251101 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
601 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40-80 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  today. Some storms could be strong with hail and locally strong
  winds. The larger threat will be heavy rainfall with the 
  potential to see at least 1 inch or more of rainfall which could
  lead to the possibility for localized flooding.

- Severe storm chances return Friday/Friday night, with a slight risk
  (level 1 of 5) for severe weather across most of central and 
  northeast South Dakota.

- Heat and humidity return late this week through the weekend with 
  additional chances for precipitation possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 500 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently increasing in 
coverage early this morning across southern and central sections of 
SD. This activity has been shifting north-northeastward into the 
forecast area and will continue to expand and develop thanks to 
persistent low level moisture advection and a slow moving warm front 
situated across southern SD. Elevated instability and embedded 
shortwave energy in southwest flow aloft will allow this trend to 
persist through the morning hours. Precipitation chances today sit 
at between 40-80 percent across the CWA.

A broad and persistent upper ridge remains centered across 
southeastern sections of the United States while an upper trough 
continues to reside across the western CONUS. Our region remains in 
between these features with a steady southwest flow aloft 
channeling low amplitude shortwave energy into the Northern Plains. 
This synoptic pattern coupled with the long duration deep moisture 
advection will set the stage for continued unsettled weather for our 
area through Thursday. Dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 
60s will advect into the forecast area today. The NAEFS and ENS 
guidance continues to signal anomalously high PWAT values between 
1.5 to 2.0 inches, which represents about 2-3 standard deviations 
above climo, approaching the historical range for late June. 
Probabilities of seeing 1 inch or more of rainfall within a 24 hour 
period ending 12Z Thursday are highest(40-50%) across our far south 
and east zones from around a Miller to Ortonville line and points 
south and east. With soils already saturated from a similar pattern 
roughly 10 to 12 days ago, the threat for heavy rainfall and 
localized flooding could become problematic in those areas that 
already have seen plenty of rainfall so far this month. In addition 
to a heavy rainfall threat, a secondary concern will be strong to 
potentially severe thunderstorms today. Instability and deep layer 
shear values don't look overly impressive in our area with MLCAPE 
values between 1000-2000 J/kg and shear around 30 kts in our 
south/southwest zones. SPC currently highlights most of central and 
northeast SD and west central MN with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) 
for severe weather today with the main threats being large hail and 
strong winds.

On Thursday, the upper level trough axis will swing through the 
area, helping to kick out the quasi-stationary frontal boundary and 
associated low pressure system. Expecting precipitation chances(20-
40%) across our eastern zones during the morning into the early 
afternoon before exiting the area to the east. Quasi-zonal flow 
takes hold give our area more a less a brief respite from the active 
weather by the second half of Thursday into the second half of the 
day on Friday. Yet, another disturbance is progged to shift into the 
Dakotas Friday afternoon and evening. Strong southerly flow out 
ahead of this system during the day will allow high low level 
moisture to persist with dew points in the mid 60s to around 70 
degrees. This will lead to moderate to strong instability and in 
combination with favorable deep layer shear leading to storm 
development within a sfc trough. The strongest storms will be 
capable of producing large hail and damaging winds through the 
evening. SPC currently has outlooked most of central and northeast 
SD for a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather Friday 
afternoon and Friday night.

For the weekend into early next week, the unsettled pattern looks to 
persist Saturday into Sunday with a general 30-60% chance for 
showers and storms. Timing and exact coverage of any of this 
activity remains uncertain at this time. Zonal flow aloft will 
become more northwesterly with time by late in the weekend into 
early next week as an upper ridge builds across the western CONUS. 
This feature may build far enough east to lead to a drier trend 
early next week. What looks more certain is warm to hot temperatures 
are likely to persist through this time frame along with high 
humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

A fairly complex TAF cycle this go around with numerous showers 
and thunderstorms in the forecast for the next 24 hours. MVFR/IFR
conditions will be the prevailing status through this forecast for
all terminals. Cigs will generally remain MVFR/IFR with a period 
of more consistent IFR cigs when the TAF sites experience heavier 
showers and thunderstorms. Vsbys will be the lowest during these 
time frames in heavier showers down to IFR status, but potentially
lower depending on the intensity of the activity over each 
terminal. Winds will generally remain east to northeast 
gusting up to 20-25 kts at times by late morning through this 
afternoon.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Vipond
DISCUSSION...Vipond
AVIATION...Vipond