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688 FXUS61 KRNK 211020 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 620 AM EDT Sat Jun 21 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A warm but mostly pleasant day today will give way to increasing temperatures and unpleasantness through the end of the weekend and into early next week as an upper level ridge looks to be centered directly over the Mid-Atlantic states by Monday. This combined with high pressure will lead to well above average temperatures approaching 100 in the Piedmont each day through the extended forecast as this upper level ridge doesn't look to break down until possibly next weekend. Daily isolated shower and thunderstorm chances look to return to the forecast on Tuesday as a backdoor front tries to sneak into the region from the northeast. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 130 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: 1) High temperatures look to run 4 to 8 degrees above normal today. Upper level ridging is currently pushing east, and starting to build over the eastern conus today. This will keep much of the region on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge. This will lead to above average high temperatures today, with temperatures running 4-8 degrees above normal. While temperatures will be warm, today will be the last day where temperatures will be around 90 or lower across the Piedmont for the extended future. Areas west of the Blue Ridge look to climb into the low to mid 80s. With surface high pressure practically directly over the region, temperatures Saturday night will again radiatively cool to the mid to upper 60s east of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 60s west of the Blue Ridge. Surface high pressure will also keep mostly clear skies over the region today, with some upper level clouds, and some isolated fair weather cumulus clouds through the afternoon hours across the region. Overall, this will be the last somewhat pleasant day before temperatures really crank up across the region. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for conditions to become hot. 2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop during Tuesday afternoon and evening. A large 599-dam upper level ridge will sit over the eastern United States to begin the week. Conditions should become increasingly hot as temperatures soar into the 90s across the Piedmont on Sunday. Some locations in the mountains may climb into the 90s by Monday and Tuesday, while heat indices reach the 100s east of the Blue Ridge. However, the building heat combined with a frontal boundary approaching the Great Lakes during Tuesday afternoon may spark scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mountains. This convection could spread into the Piedmont by Tuesday evening before fading on Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high for conditions to remain hot through the rest of the week. 2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening. Hot weather will continue through the middle of the week as a large upper level ridge remains over the eastern United States, but this ridge should slowly weaken as the week comes to a close. Heat indices will likely reach the 100s in the Piedmont during Wednesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary should cross the Great Lakes, and the increasing moisture should converge along the Appalachian Mountains to provide scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. At this point, it is too early to tell which days will feature the strongest storms. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 615 AM EDT Saturday... All terminals look to remain VFR through the taf period, with the exception of LWB, where some river valley fog and low CIGs has developed this morning and is expected again Sunday morning given the clear skies and efficient radiational cooling at night. These restrictions may be MVFR to LIFR at times, but should quickly lift by the 12-13 UTC timeframe each morning. Light winds at around 5 knots or less look to become southerly throughout the afternoon and evening hours at all terminals. Prior to this wind shift, winds will be out of the west/southwest during the early morning hours today. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High pressure will remain across the region through the end of the weekend, so anticipating mainly VFR conditions through Monday, outside any late night and early morning mountain valley fog at LWB/BCB. The next rain chances look to return Tuesday, but trend is for shower and thunderstorm activity to remain isolated in nature. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...EB NEAR TERM...EB SHORT TERM...PW LONG TERM...PW AVIATION...EB