National Weather Service Raw Text Product

053 
FXUS66 KMTR 201211
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
511 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Cooler than normal temperatures today will continue into the 
weekend. Elevated fire weather concerns today and tomorrow, 
especially interior elevated grassy areas where gusty winds will 
combine with dry conditions and increasing fuels. King tide coastal 
flooding possible Sunday into the beginning of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

A deepening upper level low has begun shifting south out of the Gulf 
of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest early this morning. A 
tightening height field gradient over NorCal and the Central Coast 
will result in gusty onshore flow persisting today and tonight. 
Isolated gusts in the 40s and 50s occurred Thursday afternoon and 
evening and should see similar speeds for today. Temperatures will 
continue to be cooler, 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of 
year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Saturday morning temperatures may come with a little chill in the 
air with H85 temps dropping into single digits, and potentially 
approaching a daily record minimum (~5C) according to the sounding 
climatology kept by the Storm Prediction Center. Despite the cooler 
temperatures, gusty winds and continued dry conditions along the 
elevated interior eastern hillsides will lead to elevated fire 
weather concerns, highlighted in the day two SPC Fire Weather 
Outlook. By early Sunday morning the strongest of several trough 
axis' exits east with wind speeds easing somewhat, and gradually 
improving RH recoveries helping to mitigate widespread fire weather 
concerns. Plenty of uncertainty remains in the synoptic pattern for 
the beginning of next week and beyond until models get a handle on 
the evolution of the large dome of high pressure across the eastern 
half of the country.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Currently a mixed bag of IFR-VFR at the terminals with patchy 
stratus. High confidence in VFR prevailing by the afternoon with the 
help of dry air advection. Strong and gusty onshore winds are 
expected through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently MVFR with gusty westerly flow. Stratus 
is somehow managing to exhibit a BKN on the METARs, but it is only 
over the western half of the terminal and only over land. 
Nonetheless, it is not expected to last long as sunrise quickly 
approaches and dry air gets advected. Westerly/westnorthwesterly 
winds will strengthen through the morning with gusts up to 45 knots 
to be expected in the afternoon and evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...The approach will likely remain clear even as 
MVFR ceilings are observed at both OAK and SFO, remaining confined 
to the land.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow at 
MRY and MVFR with westerly flow at SNS. High confidence in VFR by 
the afternoon. Gusty onshore winds will prevail through the TAF 
period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 323 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Widespread hazardous marine conditions will persist through the
weekend with strong northwesterly breezes, gale force gusts, and
rough to very rough seas. Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes
and moderate to rough seas are expected Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 323 AM PDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions continue today across the 
interior becoming more widespread on Saturday, with RH values 
around 30% expected across the interior of the East Bay south 
through the Gabilan Range, along with the Santa Lucia mountains
this afternoon. Gusty winds above the marine layer and elevated 
interior locations will once again be around 25 to 40 mph with 
less coverage today than Thursday. Brief periods of critical fire 
weather conditions are possible with daytime relative humidities 
of 15 to 25% in the interior. However, continuing marine layer 
influence, especially during the night, and the fact that winds 
remain onshore, mean that widespread critical fire conditions do 
not develop across the district. Gusty winds begin to subside
somewhat on Saturday, but the upper level pattern will lead to 
more northerly winds developing across the region. As with 
Thursday's fire weather threat, widespread critical fire weather 
conditions are not expected within the district, although the fire
weather threat will increase once again for areas closer to the 
Central Valley. The fire weather threat will continue to diminish 
Sunday into the early part of next week with the gusty winds 
further relaxing, although humidity values in the interior will be
slow to rise.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday for Mry Bay-SF Bay 
     N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt 
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt 
     Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt 
     Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

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