National Weather Service Raw Text Product

113 
FXUS65 KPUB 200942
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 AM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Red Flag Warnings remain in place over the central and western 
mountains for today and tomorrow.

- Heat Advisories remain place over the plains for today, and have 
also been issued for tomorrow. 

- Critical fire weather conditions and hot temperatures will 
continue through this weekend.

- Chances for thunderstorms start to increase again next week, 
though dry conditions may persist over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Currently..

Satellite imagery reveals clear and dry conditions over the region, 
as we sit on the backside of the departing ridge while a low moves 
onshore over the Pacific Northwest. Lingering showers have moved off 
to out southeast, though dewpoints remain in the 50s across our 
southern plains. Drier dewpoints in the 30s and 40s can be observed 
elsewhere, with temperatures still in the 70s as of 1 am. Winds are 
still southerly in most areas, though speeds have dropped off 
significantly early this morning.

Today and Tonight..

We continue to warm up and dry out as southwest flow increases over 
the region. Widespread hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected, 
with high fire danger likely over our central and western mountains. 
These areas have critical fuels, and are therefore under Red Flag 
Warnings for today, and for tomorrow as well. With temperatures 
soaring to around 12 to 15 degrees above normal, relative humidity 
values will be very low, with the entire area falling down into the 
low teens by this afternoon. Southwest winds look to increase 
throughout the morning hours, with gusts over 20 mph for much of the 
area as early as 10 AM. Gusts to 30 mph are likely over our plains 
today, with gusts to 40 mph over the high country. Downsloping 
southwest winds will only exacerbate our warming potential for our 
Friday, leading to dangerous temperatures and widespread Heat 
Advisories across our plains. El Paso, Pueblo, Crowley, Otero, 
Kiowa, Bent, Prowers, and eastern Fremont are all under Heat 
Advisories from 10 AM through 9 PM today, where temperatures are 
expected to climb to around 104 degrees over the I-25 corridor, and 
to 107 degrees over our eastern plains. Both Colorado Springs and 
Pueblo are forecast to tie their record high temperatures for today, 
which are 97F and 103F respectively. Please check on friends and 
neighbors, and never leave children or pets alone in cars. Those 
prone to heat related illness should limit time outdoors today! On 
top of critical fire weather and dangerous heat, we will also have 
to contend with thunderstorm chances across our southern plains and 
southern mountains, which is actually the reason for their exclusion 
from heat headlines. Though cloud cover looks to hold off the worst 
of the heat for our southern plains, that moisture axis also looks 
to spark another round of isolated high based showers and 
thunderstorms this afternoon and into this evening. Storms look to 
develop mainly along and east of a line extending from our southern 
Sangres to Lamar once again, though a few newer runs of high res 
model guidance drag storm chances back into Crowley, Otero, Kiowa, 
and Bent Counties as well. With another round inverted V profile 
soundings and DCAPE values over 2000 J/Kg, outflow winds gusting to 
60 mph will be possible once again with storms today, along with 
frequent lightning. 

Tomorrow..

Models bring the Pacific Low into the northern Rockies by Saturday 
morning, where it looks to remain rather stationary for a couple of 
days. Continued southwest flow will allow temperatures to warm well 
above normal once again, though we look be at least a couple of 
degrees cooler on Saturday for most locations. Still though, all of 
our plains look to warm to around 10 to 12 degrees above normal, 
which places all of the same counties in Heat Advisory criteria for 
Saturday. Winds gusting to 35 mph will be possible over the plains 
with gusts to 50 mph possible over our higher mountain peaks. 
Relative humidity values look to fall down into the single digits 
across the area, which will lead to another round of Red Flag 
Warnings for our central and western mountains, where fuels are 
critical. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025

The upper trough to our west will split on Sunday, sending a 
shortwave far to our north while the main portion of the trough 
deepens over the western CONUS. This will lead to gusty southwest 
winds aloft persisting over our area, and temperatures similar to 
Saturday, if a few degrees lower. Gusty southwest winds will mix 
down to the surface across most of the area, leading to another day 
of critical fire weather conditions. 

Over the far southeast plains, there will be a chance for some 
isolated thunderstorms later on in the afternoon, as a moisture 
boundary sets up and supplies some localized lift. However, whether 
or not the dryline pushes far enough west to support activity in our 
CWA is in question between models. Will leave some isolated POPs in 
there for now until confidence increases, but a few thunderstorms 
could certainly occur prior to Sunday Night.

The trough continues to deepen on Monday as the shortwave 
disturbance moves east along the Canadian border. A cold front will 
pass down over the plains during the day, knocking high temperatures 
down into the 80s over most of the area. Post-frontal winds Monday 
evening will support better chances for showers and thunderstorms 
over the plains as well. As we move further into the work week, the 
deepening trough will continue to supply us with moisture and lift, 
and increased instability will allow for daily chances of showers 
and thunderstorms over large portions of our CWA. Temperatures will 
also remain steady around seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Jun 20 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.  Southwest winds 
will increase this afternoon, with gusts near 40 kts. Winds 
will decrease during the evening hours.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Gusts
at both KCOS and KPUB of 30 kts or more are expected this 
afternoon, with the strongest gusts expected at KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM MDT this 
evening for COZ220-223.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for COZ220-
223.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening 
for COZ220-223.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening 
for COZ083>086-089-093-095>098.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday for COZ083>086-
089-093-095>098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...EHR