National Weather Service Raw Text Product

855 
FXUS63 KTOP 200519
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions for Friday and Saturday and slightly
  less extreme Sunday into early next week. This will be the
  first episode of high heat this warm season after a rather 
  mild recent few weeks. 

- Strong south winds develop Friday and persist through the
  weekend, with speeds close to Advisory levels in central and
  north-central Kansas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Water vapor imagery showed an upper ridge pushing east into the 
northern Plains early today. 18Z surface observations showed south 
surface winds returning to much of the local area with lower and 
middle 90s temperatures in southwest Kansas with dewpoints in the 
middle 70s along the Red River. 

Models are in quite good agreement over the next few days with very 
small spreads in SREF temperature, wind, and dewpoint values. 850mb 
temperatures warm overnight into Friday and only slightly back off 
into early next week. The mid and lower level WAA may result in a 
few high-based showers and perhaps thunderstorms late this evening 
into early Friday morning with some modest mid-level moisture in 
place, but otherwise full sunshine is expected into at least Sunday. 
Gusty south winds will set in by late Friday morning with sustained 
speeds near 30 MPH and gusts near 45 MPH likely in western areas 
Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Confidence in widespread 
and consistent Advisory speeds remains too low for an Advisory 
however. ESAT data shows a not too atypical heat event in the local 
area but 850 mb temps around 24 C and dewpoints in the mid 60s to 
lower 70s will support heat indices peaking around 103 F for most 
locations for at least Friday and Saturday. Temperature aloft cool a 
bit as the weekend and early week progress so the heat doesn't look 
quite as extreme Sunday into Tuesday but a prolonged near-Advisory 
level event could materialize for at least east-central Kansas. The 
windy conditions will bring a bit of daytime relief but will 
also serve to keep the boundary layer mixed to result in warm 
overnight temperatures. Given the strong insolation and the near
to slightly below normal temperatures in the past few weeks, 
persons will not be accustomed to this heat and will go ahead 
with a Heat Advisory area-wide Friday and Saturday.

Upper waves passing east across the northern Plains will bring a 
cold front southeast into at least central portions of Kansas Monday 
into Tuesday but little change in the pattern should push the front 
back north into the mid week. A similar front may move in again 
around Thursday. Still appears only small chances for severe storms 
will be present.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

VFR conditions prevail with winds being the main aviation
concern. Monitoring scattered storms west of KMHK that are
showing signs of weakening, but may impact the site within the
next hour or two. Winds increase from the south after sunrise 
with gusts around 30kts expected through the end of the period. 
A 40-45kt LLJ overhead could lead to some low-level turbulence 
overnight, but unidirectional flow and elevated surface winds 
preclude mention of LLWS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Record Warm Low Temperatures

June 20
               Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka           77 (1997)         71
Concordia        79 (2022)         76

June 21
               Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka           78 (2013)         77
Concordia        77 (1988)         79

June 22
               Record (Year)    Forecast
Topeka           80 (2016)         76
Concordia        78 (1988)         78

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ008-
KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-
KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-
KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Flanagan
CLIMATE...Flanagan/Poage