857 
FXUS64 KLIX 200451
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Although it took longer than expected, evening thunderstorms have
finally dissipated. May be a few sprinkles between Gonzales and
Houma, but even those should be gone shortly. Had to knock
overnight lows down a couple degrees where evening thunderstorms
dropped temperatures a little further than earlier anticipated.
Won't rule out a few patches of fog if temperatures can get down
to around 70. No changes made to the forecast beyond sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

A hot day is ongoing across the board today. Some locations have
reached heat advisory criteria such as MSY and NEW just before
convection helped bring down temperatures a bit. Meanwhile,
upstream across MS we are watching what is left of a MCS cold pool
moving south and westward almost similar to a backdoor cold 
front. This feature will help develop some weaker updrafts, 
however, over the last hour it's been a challenge to even find 
lightning with this activity. The good news is once it arrives we 
can probably drop today's heat advisory for the MS Gulf Coast and 
perhaps other locations that experienced rain and likely will not 
rebound back to heat advisory criteria. As for convection, no 
severe weather is expected, but the wider and more robust updrafts
may contain strong winds. 

Overnight there remains a weak signal for fog from BTR to MCB.
Added some patchy fog into the forecast based on the last few days
fog verification...although if most of these locations remain dry
today the potential may be a bit more limited. 

Going into Friday another heat advisory is needed. Upper level
trough exits leading to ridging overhead, which will help limit
coverage of convection. There will still be storms around,
however, the numbers will be a bit lower than today. Given the
lack of storms and likely later convective initiation times, think
we will again heat up quickly and a heat advisory will be needed
for the same locations that received an adv today and also adding
additional zones across interior south MS and the Florida 
Parishes. Once again, severe potential will be very low, but 
cannot rule out a wind gust or two. (Frye) 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

An H5 593dam ridge will reside over the midsouth region going into
the upcoming weekend. This will continue to keep most of the
region hot with perhaps additional heat advisories possible. That
said, the region will find itself under easterly flow aloft and
within this flow several easterly waves will move under the ridge
and affect our region with an uptick in POPs, especially during
the diurnal cycle. 

Through the weekend and into the start of the new workweek, this
aforementioned ridge really builds stronger as it centers over the
Appalachians or Ohio River Valley. In fact, the ridge may end up
near 600dam, which spells a very hot forecast for much of the
eastern half of the country including right here at home. That
said, the heat will likely be mitigated a good bit with passing
easterly waves and the enhancement of daily convection. As of now
timing is a bit uncertain with each wave so specifics are a bit
fuzzy, but overall confidence in higher coverage of daily activity
is rather solid. (Frye) 

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

At forecast issuance, all terminals expected to be VFR, after
evening convection has dissipated. Still quite a bit of a cirrus
shield across most terminals, and unless it dissipates, it'd lower
the threat of fog and/or low clouds around sunrise. Will continue
the IFR or lower conditions for a couple hours around sunrise at
KMCB, but confidence isn't as high as it was earlier. Once again,
as cumulus develops at mid-morning, may be an hour or two of
ceilings around FL020 or FL025 before cloud bases lift above
FL030. Guidance continues to struggle with areal coverage of TSRA
each day. With upper ridging forecast to be centered near the
Arkansas-Louisiana border Friday afternoon, one would think
there'd be enough suppression to limit development, but convection
allowing modelsdo show scattered afternoon storms, so will
continue to carry PROB30 during the afternoon with dissipation
around sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Outside of convection benign marine conditions expected through
the period with most winds at or below 15kts and seas at or below
4ft respectively. Locally higher winds and seas likely in and
around convection, which will mainly occur during the overnight
and morning hours. (Frye) 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  93  73  94 /  30  30  10  30 
BTR  73  94  75  94 /  30  30   0  40 
ASD  72  93  75  94 /  40  30  10  40 
MSY  76  94  79  94 /  30  30  10  40 
GPT  73  92  76  92 /  40  30  20  40 
PQL  72  94  74  94 /  40  40  20  40 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-071-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ070-071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION/UPDATE...RW
MARINE...RDF