National Weather Service Raw Text Product

514 
FXUS62 KKEY 190834
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
434 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Surface through mid level ridging remains across the Florida
Peninsula. This ridge has been responsible for the recent stretch
of relatively low convective coverage and moderate east to
southeasterly breezes. Recent radar and satellite imagery
indicate the quietest overnight period in a number of days. With
that said, there have been a few showers and thunderstorms around
the broader area. The Keys have been dry through the night. The
steady breeze has maintained seasonably warm and humid conditions
with temperatures now in the lower 80s and dew points in the mid
to upper 70s.

The previously mentioned ridge will be gnawed at from a mid
latitude trough swinging into the eastern United States and a
stacked weakening cut off low retrograding into eastern Cuba. For
the short term, today and tonight, moisture will remain limited 
and help to keep rain chances slight. This will get an assist as 
the boundary layer flow relaxes. No significant trend is expected 
in surface temperatures or dew points.

The evolution of the synoptic pattern for our area is complicated
in the short to mid term. The upper levels of the cut off low over
Cuba will meander over eastern Cuba for a day or so before being
pulled northeastward by another low to its northeast. However, its
lower to mid level reflection will continue to meander westward,
eventually crossing through the Florida Straits and the Keys this
weekend. Just this alone should be sufficient to make a noticeable
upward nudge in rain chances. The moisture signal at 700 mb is
limited, but there is some signs of it at 850 mb. For now will
maintain current trend to mid to high chance by the end of the
weekend. 

In the early to middle of next week time frame, a modest surface 
high will consolidate near the Carolina Coast while the lower to
mid level high setup shop over the eastern United States. This
puts the Keys quite a bit further away from the core of the ridge.
This will place the Keys in reinvigorated easterlies with ample
boundary layer to lower level moisture. The lower level flow may
also be periodically favorable for island cloud line development.
In addition, the flow aloft will transition to a weird very 
tilted trough. Altogether, this should be sufficient for at least 
mid chance pops for much of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Atlantic ridging will remain across Florida for the next couple of
days, but will weaken. As a result, breezes will continue to
oscillate further down. Surface high will consolidate broadly near
the Carolina Coast late Sunday and early Monday resulting in
modestly freshening easterly breezes. There is a potential for 
marine Cautions late in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 334 AM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025

VFR conditions will continue at both island terminals through today 
with only FEW to SCT skies near FL020, and southeasterly surface 
winds near 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1884, the daily record cold high temperature of 
80F was recorded in Key West. Temperatures records for 
Key West date back to 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  89  83  89  82 /  20  20  30  30 
Marathon  88  82  88  82 /  20  20  30  30 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP
Data Acquisition.....DP

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