National Weather Service Raw Text Product

970 
FXUS62 KKEY 180906
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
506 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 504 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Early this morning, isolated showers have started to die off for 
the majority of our CWA. Last night's KKEY 00z sounding revealed 
drier air in the lower-levels making it hard for any showers to 
thrive. MIMIC Precipitable Water also verifies drier air has 
encompassed us. Temperatures along the island chain are in the 
lower 80s. Once again, the Reef is experiencing our nightly/early 
morning surge, with observations currently east to southeasterly 
at near 15 knots. Another similar day to yesterday is in store for
the Keys as high pressure continues to keep our weather mild. 

Late this weekend into early next week is when we could see the 
pattern finally start to change. Guidance has suggested a mid to  
upper level trough strengthening and deepening across the east US
simultaneously as cut-off low moves westward over the Bahamas. 
This would result in the pinching of the high pressure that has 
been dominating our weather over the last week, bringing increased
moisture and instability to the Keys. While there still is some 
uncertainty in the chances of significant impacts for our area, 
PoPs do trend upward late this weekend. As it gets more clear in 
guidance, PoPs will be adjusted but for now stay at low chance. 
Stay tuned.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 504 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025
No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for
the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, Atlantic ridging will 
remain across the Florida Peninsula through Sunday. This will 
support moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast breezes 
and isolated, fast- moving showers and thunderstorms at times. 
Winds will peak in the evening and overnight periods, while 
lulling during the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 504 AM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals today. 
Surface winds will be gentle to moderate out of the east to 
southeast.

&&

.WEATHER HISTORY...
In 1972, during the early morning hours, Tropical Storm Agnes passed 
northward through the Yucatan channel. The outer rainbands of 
Tropical Storm Agnes spawned at least three, to as many as six 
tornadoes in the Florida Keys, including a F2 tornado in Big Coppitt 
Key, a F2 tornado in Key West, and a F1 tornado in Conch Key. Total 
damage was estimated at just over $500,000 (1972 USD). About 40 
people were injured in Big Coppitt Key, making the Big Coppitt Key 
tornado the worst in the history of the Florida Keys in terms of 
total number of injuries.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....11

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