236 
FNUS72 KMLB 170800
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Bull Creek 13...FWC
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 AM EDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on June 17. 
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly dry conditions are anticipated near the burn site, with a
20 percent chance for showers and storms in the late afternoon and
early evening. Confidence in activity does remain low, and any 
activity that does develop is forecast to diminish into the late
evening hours. Light southerly winds become more southeasterly
around 10 mph as the east coast sea breeze develops and moves 
inland. Minimum RH values range between 45 to 50 percent today, 
remaining above critical thresholds. Afternoon smoke dispersion 
values are forecast to be very good. Similar conditions are 
forecast for Wednesday near the burn site.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers 
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. 
Chance of pcpn......20 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 94. 
Min humidity........47 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 9 mph in the 
                    late morning and early afternoon, then shifting 
                    to the southeast 9 to 12 mph late in the 
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected 
                    near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 6400 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....South 7 to 10 mph shifting to the east late in 
                    the afternoon. 
Dispersion index....14 increasing to 64. 
LVORI...............4 decreasing to 1 in the late morning and 
                    afternoon. 

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky (%).........0   0   3   3   2   9   11  25  29  35  
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH SCH 
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH 
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  20  20  
Temp............77  80  86  89  91  92  92  93  94  92  
RH..............88  77  63  56  52  49  47  47  48  52  
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  
20 FT wind spd..3   5   6   6   7   8   9   9   10  12  
20 FT wind gust.6   7   8   10  12  13  14  15  15  16  
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 2.4 3.4 4.5 5.6 6.4 6.3 6.0 5.7 4.6 
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  E   
Transp wind spd.10  10  9   8   7   8   9   9   10  12  
Dispersion idx..14  33  42  45  45  59  64  63  59  49  
LVORI...........4   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Slight chance of 
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening. 
Chance of pcpn......20 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 72. 
Max humidity........97 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 12 mph in the evening and 
                    overnight becoming light. Gusty and erratic 
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the 
                    evening. 
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL early in 
                    the evening. 
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 15 mph. 
Dispersion index....49 decreasing to 4. 
LVORI...............1 increasing to 6. 

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   
Sky (%).........19     31     35     33     27     37     
Weather cov.....S CHC                                     
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........S CHC                                     
Chc of pcpn (%).20     10     0      0      0      0      
Temp............91     85     81     79     77     74     
RH..............53     63     73     79     85     90     
20 ft wind......SE 12  SE 10  SE 8   SE 6   S 5    S 3    
20 ft wind gust.17     14     13     12     9      7      
Mix hgt (ft)....4000   1600   600    500    400    400    
Transport wind..SE 14  SE 14  SE 13  S 13   S 12   S 8    
Dispersion idx..49     9      8      6      5      4      
LVORI...........1      3      3      4      5      6      

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Chance of showers 
                    and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. 
Chance of pcpn......30 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 94. 
Min humidity........49 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 12 mph in 
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and 
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late 
                    in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL increasing to 6100 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph. 
Dispersion index....3 increasing to 67. 
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 1. 

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   
Sky (%).........24     8      21     28     35     41     
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE 
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR 
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE 
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     10     30     30     
Temp............72     76     85     90     92     91     
RH..............97     90     66     54     49     53     
20 ft wind......SE 3   SE 3   SE 6   SE 8   SE 10  E 12   
20 ft wind gust.7      7      9      13     15     17     
Mix hgt (ft)....400    800    3200   5000   6100   5400   
Transport wind..S 7    S 8    SE 7   SE 8   SE 10  E 12   
Dispersion idx..3      8      28     44     67     48     
LVORI...........7      5      3      1      1      1      

$$
Forecaster...Tollefsen
Requested by...Steve Glass
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2516061.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL steve.glass@myfwc.com