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896 AXPZ20 KNHC 170407 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently named Tropical Depression Five-E is centered near 11.2N 92.6W at 17/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows deep convection becoming concentrated primarily north and near the system center. This convection is appearing to be developing into banding-type features, and over the system pattern is gradually becoming more symmetrical with time. The noted convection within the forming banding features consists of the scattered to numerous moderate to strong intensity-type from 13N to 15N between 87W and 94W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and within 60 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N to 14N between 94W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the system center in the SW quadrant. Seas are presently below 12 ft (4 m), however, rough seas prevail within 30 nm in the northern semicircle of the depression. A slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico by late Wed. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tue and a hurricane on Wed. Tropical Depression Five-E may produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by the system are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Five-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave extends from the Caribbean Sea southward along 82W to across western Panama N of 05N, moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 05N to 09N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to the coast of Panama near 09N84W, and continues to 10N88W. It resumes west-northwest of Tropical Depression Five-E near 12N98W and continues to 12N110W to 09N123W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N130W and to 10N140W. Aside from the convection related to Tropical Depression Five-E, scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 130W-132W, within 60 north of the trough between 112W-114W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ west of 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on recently named Tropical Depression Five-E. Elsewhere, the remnant low of Dalila is analyzed with a pressure of 1011 mb near 19N112W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm of the low in the SE quadrant. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are from 18N to 20N between 113W and 114W along with seas of 5 to 6 ft. High pressure is present west of Baja California with moderate or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are over the Gulf of California along with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft over the southern part of the Gulf. Moderate seas prevail across the offshore waters away from the remnants of Dalila. In the Gulf of California, moderate seas are in the southern Gulf, and slight seas elsewhere. For the forecast, other than the impacted areas related to Tropical Depression Five-E, the remnants of Dalila will continue to spin down and dissipate over the next couple of days while associated winds and seas diminish. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will support pulsing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters through the rest of the week. Rough northwest to north swell will build over the Baja waters through the rest of the week. The swell will be reinforced by a new set of northwest to north starting Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail across the Gulf of California through Tue, with strong speeds in the northern Gulf through this afternoon. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for details on recently named Tropical Depression Five-E. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere from offshore Colombia northward, with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with moderate to rough seas in southerly swell. For the forecast, other than Tropical Depression Five-E, which may bring increasing winds and seas as well as heavy rainfall described above, moderate to fresh winds will remain offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the week. Winds will be moderate or weaker offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning. Meanwhile, moderate seas off Ecuador will prevails through the rest of the week. Moderate seas will be mainly offshore Colombia northward through Wed, except higher near Tropical Cyclone Five-E, subsiding afterward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for information on recently named Tropical Depression Five-E. Broad and weak ridging extend from a high well northwest of the discussion area to across the open waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of the remnants of Dalila centered near 19N110.5W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open waters, both north and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are mainly moderate across the open waters in mixed southerly and northerly swells. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink slightly southward through the week. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds over the northwest part of the area will expand in coverage through the end of the week. A slight increase in seas is expected across the northern waters east of 130W through Thu as new north to northeast well moves into the regional waters, spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the week. $$ Aguirre
234 AXPZ20 KNHC 170758 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 17 2025 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently named Tropical Depression Five-E is centered near 11.2N 92.6W at 17/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows deep convection becoming concentrated primarily north and near the system center. This convection is appearing to be developing into banding-type features, and over the system pattern is gradually becoming more symmetrical with time. The noted convection within the forming banding features consists of the scattered to numerous moderate to strong intensity-type from 13N to 15N between 87W and 94W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and within 60 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N to 14N between 94W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the system center in the SW quadrant. Seas are presently below 12 ft (4 m), however, rough seas prevail within 30 nm in the northern semicircle of the depression. A slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico by late Wed. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tue and a hurricane on Wed. Tropical Depression Five-E may produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by the system are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Five-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave extends from the Caribbean Sea southward along 82W to across western Panama N of 05N, moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 05N to 09N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to the coast of Panama near 09N84W, and continues to 10N88W. It resumes west-southwest of Tropical Depression Five-E near 12N98W and continues to 12N110W to 09N123W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N130W and to 10N140W. Aside from the convection related to Tropical Depression Five-E, scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 130W- 132W, within 60 north of the trough between 112W-114W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ west of 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected Please read the Special Features section for details on recently named Tropical Depression Five-E. Elsewhere, the remnant low of Dalila is analyzed with a pressure of 1011 mb near 19N112W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm of the low in the SE quadrant. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are from 18N to 20N between 113W and 114W along with seas of 5 to 6 ft. High pressure is present west of Baja California with moderate or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are over the Gulf of California along with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft over the southern part of the Gulf. Moderate seas prevail across the offshore waters away from the remnants of Dalila. In the Gulf of California, moderate seas are in the southern Gulf, and slight seas elsewhere. For the forecast, other than the impacted areas related to Tropical Depression Five-E, the remnants of Dalila will continue to spin down and dissipate over the next couple of days while associated winds and seas diminish. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will support pulsing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters through the rest of the week. Rough northwest to north swell will build over the Baja waters through the rest of the week. The swell will be reinforced by a new set of northwest to north starting Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail across the Gulf of California through Tue. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere during the period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for details on recently named Tropical Depression Five-E. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere from offshore Colombia northward, with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with moderate to rough seas in southerly swell. For the forecast, other than Tropical Depression Five-E, which may bring increasing winds and seas as well as heavy rainfall described above, moderate to fresh winds will remain offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the week. Winds will be moderate or weaker offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning. Meanwhile, moderate seas off Ecuador will prevails through the rest of the week. Moderate seas will be mainly offshore Colombia northward through Wed, except higher near Tropical Cyclone Five-E, subsiding afterward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for information on recently named Tropical Depression Five-E. Broad and weak ridging extend from a high well northwest of the discussion area to across the open waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of the remnants of Dalila centered near 19N110.5W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open waters, both north and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are mainly moderate across the open waters in mixed southerly and northerly swells. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink slightly southward through the week. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds over the northwest part of the area will expand in coverage through the end of the week. A slight increase in seas is expected across the northern waters east of 130W through Thu as new north to northeast well moves into the regional waters, spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the week. $$ Aguirre
807 AXPZ20 KNHC 170740 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 17 2025 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently named Tropical Depression Five-E is centered near 11.2N 92.6W at 17/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows deep convection becoming concentrated primarily north and near the system center. This convection is appearing to be developing into banding-type features, and over the system pattern is gradually becoming more symmetrical with time. The noted convection within the forming banding features consists of the scattered to numerous moderate to strong intensity-type from 13N to 15N between 87W and 94W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and within 60 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N to 14N between 94W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the system center in the SW quadrant. Seas are presently below 12 ft (4 m), however, rough seas prevail within 30 nm in the northern semicircle of the depression. A slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico by late Wed. Strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by early Tue and a hurricane on Wed. Tropical Depression Five-E may produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, across coastal sections of El Salvador, Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Tabasco and Veracruz. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum totals of 12 inches, are possible across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall may produce life threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by the system are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico in a day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Five-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave extends from the Caribbean Sea southward along 82W to across western Panama N of 05N, moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave from 05N to 09N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to the coast of Panama near 09N84W, and continues to 10N88W. It resumes west-northwest of Tropical Depression Five-E near 12N98W and continues to 12N110W to 09N123W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N130W and to 10N140W. Aside from the convection related to Tropical Depression Five-E, scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 130W-132W, within 60 north of the trough between 112W-114W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ west of 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected Please read the Special Features section for details on recently named Tropical Depression Five-E. Elsewhere, the remnant low of Dalila is analyzed with a pressure of 1011 mb near 19N112W. Isolated showers are possible within 60 nm of the low in the SE quadrant. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds are from 18N to 20N between 113W and 114W along with seas of 5 to 6 ft. High pressure is present west of Baja California with moderate or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are over the Gulf of California along with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft over the southern part of the Gulf. Moderate seas prevail across the offshore waters away from the remnants of Dalila. In the Gulf of California, moderate seas are in the southern Gulf, and slight seas elsewhere. For the forecast, other than the impacted areas related to Tropical Depression Five-E, the remnants of Dalila will continue to spin down and dissipate over the next couple of days while associated winds and seas diminish. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will support pulsing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja California Norte offshore waters through the rest of the week. Rough northwest to north swell will build over the Baja waters through the rest of the week. The swell will be reinforced by a new set of northwest to north starting Fri. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail across the Gulf of California through Tue. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere during the period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please read the Special Features section for details on recently named Tropical Depression Five-E. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere from offshore Colombia northward, with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, with moderate to rough seas in southerly swell. For the forecast, other than Tropical Depression Five-E, which may bring increasing winds and seas as well as heavy rainfall described above, moderate to fresh winds will remain offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the week. Winds will be moderate or weaker offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning. Meanwhile, moderate seas off Ecuador will prevails through the rest of the week. Moderate seas will be mainly offshore Colombia northward through Wed, except higher near Tropical Cyclone Five-E, subsiding afterward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for information on recently named Tropical Depression Five-E. Broad and weak ridging extend from a high well northwest of the discussion area to across the open waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of the remnants of Dalila centered near 19N110.5W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open waters, both north and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are mainly moderate across the open waters in mixed southerly and northerly swells. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink slightly southward through the week. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds over the northwest part of the area will expand in coverage through the end of the week. A slight increase in seas is expected across the northern waters east of 130W through Thu as new north to northeast well moves into the regional waters, spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the week. $$ Aguirre