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006 FXUS64 KAMA 161743 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX Issued by National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1243 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 112 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 - Hot to very hot temperatures are expected Monday and Tuesday across the Panhandles. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Palo Duro Canyon today from 1 PM to 8 PM. - There is a very low chance for thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon across the eastern combined Panhandles. If thunderstorms do develop, they could become strong to severe. - Elevated thunderstorms will be possible behind a cold front, primarily across the northern combined Panhandles, Thursday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 112 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 An upper-level ridge will attempt to build into the southern Plains today with embedded shortwave troughs rounding the edge of the ridge. Temperatures today will warm into low-90s to upper-90s, with some of the typical hot spots reaching to 100 degrees or slightly above. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Palo Duro Canyon given the expected triple digit temperatures the potential for humidity to stick around in the Canyon due to backing surface winds, leading to a heat index of around 105 degrees. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms may develop as a previously mentioned shortwave moves toward the Panhandles later in the afternoon hours. Although a few CAMs do depict this activity, guidance suggests that there could be dry air being brought in around 700mb and some modest capping in place which would prevent thunderstorm development. For this reason, will leave PoPs to less than 10%. However, if those factors turn out to not be an issue, thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of the Panhandles with uncertain coverage. There would also be favorable instability and wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorms. A more potent shortwave trough will approach the Panhandles Tuesday morning resulting in the development of a seasonably potent surface low... potentially as low as 990mb... in northeastern New Mexico/western Texas Panhandle. As a result, very dry air will move in to at least the western Texas Panhandles as a surface trough gets pushed eastward throughout the day. Temperatures across the Panhandles will warm into the upper-90s to low-100s in the Texas Panhandle, and low-90s to upper-90s across the Oklahoma Panhandle. Once again, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for Palo Duro Canyon. Will have to watch the area east of the surface trough in the late afternoon for thunderstorm development as temperatures reach the convective temperature and surface convergence along the surface trough maximizes. However, a major limiting factor is that several weather models show dry air advection around 700mb, even stronger than today, which would likely act to suppress thunderstorm development. As such, have limited PoPs in the Texas Panhandle to 15% given the outside chance that the dry air aloft doesn't pan out to be as oppressive as currently anticipated. A cold front will move in from the north in the evening and overnight hours. There appears to be more favorable low-level moisture behind the front, and as such, some elevated showers and thunderstorms will be possible particularly across the Oklahoma Panhandle. Vanden Bosch && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 112 AM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 The Panhandles will be behind in a post-"cold" frontal regime as a shortwave trough departs the Plains. Given the weak nature of the cold front, temperatures across the Panhandles should be near average for mid-June. An upper-level ridge will move from the Four Corner states on Thursday through the Southern Plains by Saturday and dry weather and temperatures warming well into the 90s will result. The ridge will move into the Southeastern US on Sunday as an upper-level trough digs into the Western US. This will allow for moisture from the Gulf and the Pacific to move back into the Panhandles. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites. Could see some VCTS conditions for KGUY between 22Z and 06Z Tuesday, but confidence is not high enough to include in TAF at this time. Winds will be out of the south and southwest at 10-15 kts with higher gusts at times. && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...52 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...29