748 
AXNT20 KNHC 152324
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 15N, 
moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is 
associated with this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 15N, 
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave at this time.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, from 19N
southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted behind the wave from 14N to 17N between 73W
and 77W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong
convection is near the monsoon trough from 10N to 13N between 76W
and 81.5W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues 
southwestward to 06.5N22W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 
06.5N22W to 06N34W, then from 05.5N38W to 05N46W, and from 04N49W
to the coast of French Guiana at 05N53W. Isolated moderate
convection dots the basin from 03N to the ITCZ between 18W and
48W. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

Popcorn afternoon convection is intensifying across the NE third
of Gulf waters this evening, with strongest cells offshore of the
western Florida Panhandle. A low level wind surge associated with
an ill defined tropical wave has moved across the Yucatan
Peninsula today with late afternoon convection now developing
along the N and NW coasts. A narrow convergence line of showers
and thunderstorms extends from the western Bay of Campeche along 
96W northward to offshore of Tuxpan. The Atlantic surface ridge
extends across central Florida and into the NE Gulf producing
light to gentle winds across NE portions and slight seas, except
near convection. Moderate SE to S winds prevail across the
remainder of the basin, with fresh SE winds across much of the Bay
of Campeche. Seas there are 3 to 5 ft W of 90W. 

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will
persist westward into the NE and N central Gulf through the
upcoming week to maintain moderate S to SE winds and moderate 
seas over the central and western Gulf, with gentle to moderate 
SE winds and slight to moderate seas in the eastern basin. Fresh 
to strong E to NE winds will pulse each afternoon and evening 
through the week north of the Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern
Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough develops and tracks westward 
across the region. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen across the SW
Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 14N and west of 76W, 
and extends inland across Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Honduras,
where strong thunderstorms and heavy rain area occurring. An upper
level trough across the NW basin is supporting moderate convection
aloft from south of Jamaica into interior portions of Hispaniola.
Fresh to strong trades were detected by satellite scatterometer 
data across the central and southwest Caribbean and the Gulf of 
Honduras. Seas in these winds range from 7-10 ft to the E of 83W 
and 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere in the Caribbean 
Sea, moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to 
prevail across the central and west-central Caribbean through the
middle of the week as a strong pressure gradient persists between
high pressure to the north along about 30N and low pressure in 
the south-central Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are expected 
in this region. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will also occur each
night and morning in the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will 
expand through much of the northwestern Caribbean Tue through Wed
night after the passage of a tropical wave. Otherwise, mainly 
moderate winds and seas are expected across the rest of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge continues to dominate the entire tropical 
Atlantic basin, centered on 1027 mb high pressure near 32N40W. The
ridge extends W-SW and across northern Florida, and continues to
transport significant plumes of Saharan Air across the basin waters.
Fresh trade winds prevail S of 22N between 34W and the Bahamas. Moderate
seas of 5 to 7 ft are found across this trade wind zone. wind of
moderate speeds or weaker trades and seas of 5 ft or less prevail
N of 22N. Fresh northerly winds are found N through NE of the Cabo
Verdes, where seas are 6 to 9 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds will 
persist south of 25N through the middle of the week as high 
pressure remains over the central Atlantic. Strong trade winds 
will pulse each late afternoon through evening north of 
Hispaniola. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore 
of Florida into the middle of the week as low pressure prevails 
over the eastern United States. Mainly gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere north of 25N through the 
week. 

$$
Stripling

924 
AXNT20 KNHC 162304
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduce to this map, analyzed along 18W
from 02N to 15N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 05N to 12N between 17W-21W. 

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
16N with axis near 40W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the southern portion of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 02N to
15N with axis near 51W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the southern portion of the wave.

A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean S of 19N with axis near 82W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is 
ahead and along the wave axis extending over Nicaragua, Costa Rica
and Panama offshore waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues 
southwestward to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 05N36W 
and then resumes W of a tropical wave from 04N43W to 03N48W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm on either sides of
the boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge continues to extend from the central Atlantic 
into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds and
moderate seas west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker E to SE 
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Otherwise, a surface 
trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms with 
gusty winds and rough seas offshore Veracruz and over the Bay of 
Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is also depicted over the 
northern Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E to NE winds will pulse each 
afternoon and evening through the week north of the Yucatan 
Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal trough 
develops and tracks westward across the region. Otherwise, surface
ridging extending across most of the basin from the western 
Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh S to SE winds and 
moderate seas over the central and western Gulf through Fri night.
Gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas are forecast to 
prevail across the eastern half of the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding a tropical wave moving across the western Caribbean.

The Caribbean is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge
centered by a 1025 mb high near 32N35W. The pressure gradient 
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures over the SW 
Caribbean results in strong to near gale-force easterly winds in 
the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean. Seas in these 
waters are in the rough category. The strongest winds and seas 
are noted off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong easterly winds and 
moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to 
fresh trades are elsewhere, except in the lee side of Cuba where 
winds are gentle to moderate. 

For the forecast, fresh to near gale force easterly winds and 
rough seas are forecast across the central and portions of the SW
Caribbean through Fri night due to a prevalent Atlantic 
subtropical ridge extending southward into the northern Caribbean.
Fresh to strong trades will pulse at night in the Gulf of 
Honduras through Tue and then stay strong through Thu while 
expanding northward as the Bermuda High builds. Rough seas are 
expected in the Gulf of Honduras and other portions of the NW 
Caribbean Tue night through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere through Fri night. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Wave section above for information
regarding tropical waves moving across the central Atlantic.

An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the entire subtropical
Atlantic waters, extending from a 1025 mb high pressure near 
32N35W. Moderate to fresh easterlies are ongoing across the Great
Bahama Bank, and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola offshore waters. The 
passage of two tropical waves is supporting winds of similar speed
between 42W and the Lesser Antilles with moderate to rough seas. 
Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are ongoing between 
the NW coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate or 
weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. 
Otherwise, scattered showers are over the Dominican Republic 
offshore waters due to a deep layer trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds 
are forecast south of 25N through Fri night as a broad subtropical
Atlantic ridge stays in place. Strong winds will pulse just north
of Hispaniola at night into late week as the Bermuda High builds.
Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of NE 
Florida through Thu associated with a surface trough extending 
along the eastern United States. Moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week. 

$$
ERA