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272 FXUS63 KGRB 142040 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 340 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of showers expected through the weekend, especially west and north of the Fox Valley/lakeshore areas. - A warm, humid and stormy period expected for the early to mid part of the next work week, and again toward Friday/Saturday. Strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall will be possible at times. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 339 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 A band of light to moderate showers extended from RRL/AUW/CWA east-northeast to northern Door County. These showers were supported by H8 WAA and moisture convergence along a fairly tight baroclinic zone. The showers have been very slowly weakening as they have drifted south this afternoon. Low stratus has held temperatures in the lower to middle 50s north, but clearing has allowed readings to rise into the lower to middle 70s in parts of central Wi and the Fox Valley. Precipitation Chances through the rest of the Weekend: Precipitation chances are difficult to pinpoint due to generally weak forcing. CAMs suggest that the current showers will become more scattered overnight, possibly increase again over our western counties late tonight into early Sunday, then decrease in coverage during the day. Kept chance pops going in our western counties through the afternoon on Sunday, and carried a slight chance of thunderstorms late, as elevated instability will be arriving then. East to southeast winds, combined with scattered showers and mostly cloudy skies, will keep temperatures from getting out of the 60s in northern WI, but low to middle 70s will be possible C/EC WI. Stormy Period expected through mmuch of the next Week: The Canadian high will shift east early in the week, which will allow a warm front to lift north through the region Sunday night into Monday. This will cause southerly winds to develop and bring warmer, more moist and unstable air into the region. Scattered storms could develop in association with the warm frontal passage. A cold front will move through MN on Monday, reach northwest WI Monday night, then shift into GRB CWA on Tuesday, with additional rounds of storms possible during this period. The front will edge eastward Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a surface wave lifting northeast along the boundary on Wednesday. It is possible that the front will be east of the forecast area by Wednesday, which would push the best potential for severe storms to our southeast. Although timing is uncertain, this period has potential for a couple rounds of severe weather, given sufficient instability and deep layer shear. Timing of individual short-waves may be the determining factor in whether we see a more significant/widespread event. Models are showing an even more unstable pattern setting up Friday into Saturday, but with potential for significant capping as a very warm air mass arrives. This will bear watching, as models are showing CAPE as high as 4000-6000 j/kg, along with fairly strong deep layer shear. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025 Clearing has occurred in the Fox Valley/lakeshore areas today, while extensive IFR/MVFR stratus persisted north of a line from MFI to EZS to MNM. A band of widespread showers was ongoing at midday, centered along a line from RRL to AIG to far NE WI. These have been gradually shifting ESE and slowly weakening. Have opted to keep a dry and VFR forecast going for the eastern TAF sites, with a BKN-OVC stratocumulus deck returning during the evening. Farther northwest, expect showers to become more scattered into the evening, then perhaps increase again in parts of NC/C WI late tonight into early Sunday. Thunder potential looks very low (<10%) through the period. Widespread MVFR-IFR conditions persist, with possible LIFR in the far north due to very low ceilings and some fog. Expect most places in the north to return to MVFR by midday Sunday. Winds will remain light from the east to northeast through tonight, then veer southeast in some areas by midday Sunday. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch AVIATION.......Kieckbusch