National Weather Service Raw Text Product

367 
FXUS61 KCLE 140718
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
318 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front remains across the region through today before
pushing south into the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Surface high
pressure briefly builds overhead from the north before the
aforementioned front lifts back north as a warm front Monday 
night into Tuesday. The front will once again stall across the 
region through mid-week. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Stalled front draped across the area will continue to impact 
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic regions through the near term. 
The primary concern with the stalled boundary continues to be 
heavy rainfall and localized flooding as PWATs are expected to 
range between 1.7 and 1.9 inches, well above the 90th percentile
for mid- June, combined with weak cloud layer flow. HREF 
neighborhood probabilities hint at a swath of higher QPF mainly 
along and north of US-30 given the placement of the stalled 
front. Peak hourly rates will likely occur this morning through
early afternoon with HREF 1hr maximum QPF amounts ranging 
between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. Very isolated chance of diurnally 
driven thunderstorms developing this afternoon and early evening
across southeastern zones. Not expecting any severe 
thunderstorms given the lack of instability but some sub-severe
wet thunderstorm downbursts are possible in any stronger storm
that develops. Cloud cover will keep high temperatures in the 
lower 70s today. Lows will settle in the low 60s tonight.

The front will begin to push south out of the region this 
evening which will allow for showers to exit from northwest to 
southeast through tonight. A brief surface high builds over the
region from the north on Sunday bringing dry weather for end 
the near term period. Highs will be slightly warmer on Sunday as
they rise into the mid to upper 70s. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A quasi-zonal mid level flow will continue into early next week. A 
stubborn stationary frontal boundary will continue to be around to 
start off the new week. On Monday, the stalled front will be near 
the central Ohio area and bring a chance for scattered showers and 
storms mainly in the afternoon. High temperatures Monday will range 
from the upper 70s over northwest Pennsylvania to the lower 80s over 
northwest Ohio. The frontal boundary will lift northward as a warm 
front by Tuesday. With a moisture rich atmosphere on lingering 
around Tuesday, POPs will increase for scattered showers and 
thunderstorm during the afternoon. Tuesday's afternoon high 
temperatures will be a little warmer in the lower to middle 80s. 
Overnight low temperatures will be warm as well in the lower to 
upper 60s for early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The middle of the week looks to remain somewhat unsettled with very 
warm weather and chances for showers and thunderstorms. The area 
will be south of a warm front that will be draped across southern 
Ontario by the middle of next week. A shortwave trough will move 
across the Northern Plains region into the Upper Midwest on 
Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms will again be around 
Wednesday with high temperatures into the lower to mid 80s. The 
shortwave trough will track across the Great Lakes region on 
Thursday dragging a cold front into the Ohio Valley. Thursday will 
be the day with the highest POPs for showers and thunderstorms. High 
temperatures will be held down in the upper 70s to lower 80s on 
Thursday. Towards the end of next week, the weather pattern will 
shift to a northwest flow in between an upper level trough to the 
east and an upper level ridge to the west. A drier and seasonable 
warm weather pattern is expected by the end of next week. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mixed bag of conditions overnight tonight as mist and rain 
showers persist across the region. Areas of VFR ceilings and 
visibilities are expected to reduce to IFR through tonight as 
rain showers continue during the morning and afternoon while a 
front remains draped across the region. As the front sags south
through the evening rain showers will diminish from northwest 
to southeast. Fairly high confidence in low clouds through the 
TAF period (IFR to MVFR), though guidance is hinting at ceilings
beginning to lift to high- end MVFR to low- end VFR by late 
in the TAF period. There is a chance for some isolated 
thunderstorms, mainly along a line from KMFD to KCAK to KYNG 
and points south, depending on how many breaks in cloud cover 
there are during the afternoon. Have continued VCTS mention from
~18Z to ~22Z for those TAF sites with this forecast update. Low
confidence in any strong to severe thunderstorms occurring in 
the afternoon and evening as instability seems fairly minimal. 

Generally northerly to northeasterly winds 5-10 knots will
continue through the TAF period with light and variable flow
anticipated across inland locations. 

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic showers and thunderstorms
this weekend through Wednesday, especially Sunday afternoon and
again on Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal boundary has become nearly stationary south of the lake 
across central Ohio. Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots will be around 
today into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard 
Statement for rip currents also remain in effect today. Waves will 
be 2 to 4 feet due to the persistent northeasterly flow.  Northeast 
winds will continue through Sunday 5 to 15 knots. By Monday, the 
northeast winds will weaken to 5-10 knots as the frontal boundary 
shifts closer to southern Ohio. Winds will become south-southwest  5-
10 knots on Tuesday when a warm front pushes northward across the 
lake. Southerly southwesterly winds will continue Wednesday and 
Thursday 10 to 20 knots. 

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ007-
     009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for 
     LEZ143>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...13
NEAR TERM...13
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...13
MARINE...77