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491 
FXUS63 KFGF 132337
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
637 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for a few strong storms Sunday evening through Monday 
  morning. Additional signals for potential severe storms Monday
  afternoon.

- Active pattern keeps daily thunderstorm chances in the 
  forecast nearly each day next week. Strong to severe storms 
  are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

There is a bit more clearing in our northeast (closer to the 
surface ridge center, however the stratus is holding on across 
our south and west. WIth the moist east-southeast flow in place 
through the night into Saturday there is a signal for fog 
development in the southern RRV and west central MN. The lack of
clearing limits (dense fog unlikely without breaks in stratus).
I added patchy fog mention to our south for the 10-15Z 
climatologically favored period to cover this signal. 
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track overnight. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...Synopsis...

Zonal progressive H5 flow continues into the weekend and the early 
part of next week. Transient H7 shortwaves are expected nearly each 
day from Sunday onward through the end of the week, with a trend 
towards southwest flow at the low to mid levels by Tuesday morning. 
This will be ahead of a surface low working it's way across the 
Northern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. Showers and 
thunderstorms are possible, with some support for strong to severe 
thunderstorms. Uncertainty still remains in the timing of the 
shortwave as diurnal heating will influence the potential severity 
of any thunderstorm activity. A surface ridge sets up late next 
week, followed by a return to southwest flow heading into next 
weekend.

...Active Pattern Starting Sunday...

A progressive H7 shortwave traverses the flow Sunday into Monday, 
bringing our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. While a few 
strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening, the better 
instability looks to stay just south of the area. Current timing 
brings the best rain chances across the southern portions of the Red 
River Valley during the overnight period into Monday morning. 
Additional strong and perhaps even a few severe storms are possible 
Monday, with timing still a bit uncertain at this time. Run to run 
variation has increased over the last 24 hours, thus lowering 
overall confidence in a single solution. 

A much larger and slow moving system moves across the area late 
Monday through Wednesday, with a closed H7 low expected to form over 
the northern portions of the Intermountain West, then move east into 
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The chance for strong 
thunderstorms looks uncertain once more, as instability is pushed 
southward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

MVFR stratus has been slow to erode and is still lingering in
southeast ND and parts of west central MN, however satellite and
ob trends support VFR at KFAR this evening before stratus fills
back in later this evening/overnight. MVFR stratus eventually
overspreads eastern ND and parts of northwest MN (lower chances
at KTVF), and there is a low chance for IFR ceilings Saturday
morning. The pattern remains locked in place, and while a
consensus of guidance is showing improvement to VFR at all
terminals Saturday afternoon I could see a few sites remaining
MVFR longer than currently shown. Wind gusts end with sunset
this evening with southeast to easterly winds 6-11kt through the
TAF period. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR