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926 FXUS63 KFGF 132047 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 347 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chance for a few strong storms Sunday evening through Monday morning. Additional signals for potential severe storms Monday afternoon. - Active pattern keeps daily thunderstorm chances in the forecast nearly each day next week. Strong to severe storms are possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 ...Synopsis... Zonal progressive H5 flow continues into the weekend and the early part of next week. Transient H7 shortwaves are expected nearly each day from Sunday onward through the end of the week, with a trend towards southwest flow at the low to mid levels by Tuesday morning. This will be ahead of a surface low working it's way across the Northern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, with some support for strong to severe thunderstorms. Uncertainty still remains in the timing of the shortwave as diurnal heating will influence the potential severity of any thunderstorm activity. A surface ridge sets up late next week, followed by a return to southwest flow heading into next weekend. ...Active Pattern Starting Sunday... A progressive H7 shortwave traverses the flow Sunday into Monday, bringing our next chance for showers and thunderstorms. While a few strong storms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening, the better instability looks to stay just south of the area. Current timing brings the best rain chances across the southern portions of the Red River Valley during the overnight period into Monday morning. Additional strong and perhaps even a few severe storms are possible Monday, with timing still a bit uncertain at this time. Run to run variation has increased over the last 24 hours, thus lowering overall confidence in a single solution. A much larger and slow moving system moves across the area late Monday through Wednesday, with a closed H7 low expected to form over the northern portions of the Intermountain West, then move east into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. The chance for strong thunderstorms looks uncertain once more, as instability is pushed southward. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 MVFR conditions prevail at KFAR this afternoon with VFR ceilings elsewhere. Look for an increase in cloud cover heading into the late evening, with a chance for more widespread MVFR ceilings during the overnight period. Scattered light shower activity continues this afternoon near KFAR, with occasional mist causing visibility reductions as low as 2SM. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lynch AVIATION...Lynch