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790 FXUS63 KGRB 130736 AFDGRB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 236 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain and a few thunderstorms today through Saturday, mainly north and west of the Fox Valley. Low risk for severe storms. Probability of 1 inch or more of rain 40 to 60 percent mainly across north-central Wisconsin. - Additional chances for rain and storms Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025 Short Term...Today...Tonight...and Saturday A band of light to moderate rainfall, associated with mid level (700-850mb) frontogenesis from roughly Wausau to Sturgeon Bay will lift north this morning. This will shift this band of rain north over north-central Wisconsin later this morning and into the afternoon hours. A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible, but should have minimal impact. Rainfall chances across this region will be high (80-near 100 percent) given the abundant moisture and lift expected across this region. Rainfall amounts should generally be under an inch, with a 40-60 percent chance of exceeding an inch across north-central Wisconsin. Given the relatively high Flash Flood Guidance numbers, flooding is not expected to have a major impact if there is any. Much of the region south of this frontogenetic band is expected to be mostly dry, with light QPF amounts expected across east- central Wisconsin today. The rain will continue tonight as the frontogenesis becomes a bit more diffuse as rain chances fall to 40-60 percent tonight into Saturday from central into northeast Wisconsin where the best dynamics and moisture will reside. Rainfall amounts during this period will be lower than today, with some locally higher pockets approaching a half to one inch possible in any persistent frontogenetic bands. Once again the impact from flooding should be low given the high FFG numbers. Abundant cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures well below normal through the first half of the weekend. Long Term...Saturday Night Through Thursday An overall zonal upper-level flow will provide a path for a parade of mid-level shortwaves across the region throughout this forecast period. Given the active pattern, ensemble forecast models paint chances for rain and thunderstorms each day. This is due to the lack in agreement with the finer details, including time and location for each shortwave. Therefore, do not anticipate every location will see precipitation each day, but precipitation could occur somewhere across the forecast area each day. The only exception for a widespread chance for rain and storms is appearing sometime midweek as models are trending towards a more dynamic shortwave trough developing over the central Plains and lifting northeast over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Depending on how this system evolves over the coming days, conditions may be favorable for strong or severe storms somewhere across the Midwest. A warming trend is anticipated into early next week with high temperatures forecast to climb into the low to middle 80s, but the forecast rainfall may prevent some locations from seeing these temps. && .AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 Rain showers continue to spread across central and northern WI. Generally seeing VFR ceilings with MVFR visibility where rain is steadiest. Additional waves of showers will work across central and northern WI overnight through Friday morning. A few showers may also impact the Fox Valley and east-central WI, though this chance is not as high as from central WI into northern WI (AUW/CWA/RHI). Easterly winds will remain elevated tonight around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Friday into Friday evening, ceilings will deteriorate to MVFR and IFR central to north-central, with MVFR to lower VFR elsewhere. MVFR or even IFR visibilities will occur at times over northern WI, including at RHI as showers prevail there. Easterly winds will remain gusty at times. Patchy fog may develop by Friday evening over northern WI. The potential for thunder through the TAF period remains low. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION.....Kurimski/Kruk AVIATION.......JLA