National Weather Service Raw Text Product

249 
FXUS63 KFGF 130346
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1046 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues across southeastern North Dakota and west
  central Minnesota. There is a 90 percent chance for over 1
  inch of rain tonight into Friday afternoon south of the I-94
  corridor.

- Period of strong to severe storms next week in some locations.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

The heaviest rain has remained in northern SD over the past
several hours, in line with forecast expectations. While rain is
still forecasted overnight in southeastern ND into west central
MN, the heaviest will remain just south of this FA. The highest
rainfall total in this FA so far is at the Brampton NDAWN 
(Sargent County), with 1.29". Rainfall totals drop off quickly 
to the north, with only a few hundredths along the I94 
corridor. Rain will continue on and off through Friday morning 
in the south. Made tweaks to pops and cloud cover, with the rest
of the forecast generally on track. 

UPDATE
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

As of 645 PM, a stationary front is draped near I90 in SD. To 
the north of the front, rain and thunderstorms have developed. 
The heaviest/steadiest rain has remained in northern SD, where 2
to 4 inches has fallen. Lighter rain extends north of the state
line into ND, with NDAWN showing up to a half inch in 
southeastern ND. Based on current trends, further convective 
development is likely in northern SD, with the heaviest training
thunderstorms remaining just south of this FA. Of course small 
shifts could push the heaviest precipitation a little further 
north, so we will continue to monitor it closely through the 
evening. Otherwise the forecast remains on track, with just a
few tweaks to precipitation timing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...Synopsis...

Near zonal flow with several weak shortwaves moving through
tonight and tomorrow, with one such shortwave near the SD border
this afternoon. We will stay on the cool side of the baroclinic
zone and instability will be fairly limited this afternoon and
again Friday. The weak shortwaves will continue over the top of
a ridge as it starts to build into the Plains for the weekend
and into Monday. A stronger trough coming in by Tuesday, with a
surface low moving through the southern Red River Valley. A
brief break on Wednesday with northwesterly flow and then
another ridge rider possible for Thursday.

...Rain tonight and tomorrow in southern counties...

Rain that has pushed into the southern CWA from SD so far has
ranged from a few hundredths to nearly half an inch. A little
bit of a break with rain getting more showery, but then the CAMs
bring in another round of showers and even few isolated
thunderstorms up from SD. Higher ends of the NBM bring up to 3
to 3.5 inches into our southern counties. Moisture transport is
good and there is 1.5 inches of pwats to work with, but
instability is pretty weak. Probabilities from the HREF for an 
inch or more are very high down along the SD border, but drop to
around 50 percent for over 2 inches and less than 10 percent 
for more than 3 inches. Given that the rain is expected over a
fairly large time frame from tonight into tomorrow, expect more
of a soaking rain than anything that would cause problems from
heavy rain.

...More active pattern in the extended...

Several shortwaves coming through the zonal flow or over top of
ridging. ECMWF EFI as some 50th to 70th percentiles for CAPE
above climatology, but mostly to our south and west. Can't rule
out convection this time of year, especially with the stronger
shortwaves coming through Monday and Tuesday. Machine learning,
both the Pangu and FengWu, have 5 to 15 percent probabilities
for severe impacts into our counties Sunday and continuing into
the upcoming work week. Details impossible to parse out at the
point, but definitely looks more active.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

In general, chances for precipitation at all terminals has 
decreased compared to the previous set of TAFs, which is 
reflected in a reduction in coverage, duration or both of -RA or
VCSH in all TAFs. MVFR ceilings are still expected, especially 
Friday morning. MVFR will persist longest at KFAR, where clouds 
will be slow to clear or lift. As we progress through Friday
afternoon, ceilings will rise from north to south, with clouds 
slowly thinning as the system responsible pulls away. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rafferty
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...Rafferty