National Weather Service Raw Text Product

542 
FXUS63 KIND 122355
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
755 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms Friday through much of the 
  weekend

- Heavy downpours and localized flooding will be the primary threat 
  Friday afternoon through Saturday evening

- A near daily risk for scattered showers and storms will continue 
  through much of next week

- Muggy conditions are expected through the upcoming week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Friday)...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Cirrus expanding over the region early this afternoon in an 
increasingly thicker shield with scattered diurnal underneath the 
higher deck. 18Z temperatures were into the low and mid 80s with a 
noticeable uptick in humidity levels as dewpoints were largely in 
the 60s.

The upper low poised to bring another round of stormy and unsettled 
weather to central Indiana is lifting northeast out of the southern 
Plains this afternoon and will move into the mid Mississippi Valley 
by Friday evening. With a frontal boundary meandering over the 
region as well...anticipate scattered to numerous areas of 
convection developing for Friday.

The rest of the afternoon and evening will remain quiet with remnant 
dry air and lingering ridging aloft over the region. Mid and high 
level clouds will continue to expand into the forecast area from the 
southwest with a plume of Gulf moisture arriving overnight ahead of 
the upper low. Cannot rule out a few showers after midnight but in 
the absence of more notable lift expect most of the area remains dry 
until near daybreak Friday.

Much deeper moisture overspreads the region on Friday with 
isentropic lift increasing as well. Greater coverage of showers will 
be in the Wabash Valley near daybreak then expand northeast through 
the morning. Instability will be limited by the clouds and 
increasing convection but still think CAPEs will peak near 1000j/kg 
in the afternoon. A few stronger cells are possible with gusty winds 
as cores collapse but poor lapse rates and little available BL shear 
will keep convection disorganized into the evening. PWATS will rise 
to 1.75 inches or greater in the afternoon with brief torrential 
downpours as the primary impact from showers and storms. Could 
easily see a couple inches of rain in spots with a localized 
flooding threat and this will continue into Saturday as well.

Temps...lows tonight will hold near 70 degrees with the deeper 
moisture advection into the Ohio Valley. Highs should rise into the 
lower 80s over most of the forecast area on Friday even with the 
clouds and convection.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Split flow aloft will persist through the weekend with the jet 
stream well to the north close to the Canadian border. The 
combination of an upper low moving slowly through the Ohio Valley 
with a stagnant frontal boundary and weak surface wave riding along 
it will keep an unsettled and stormy pattern for much of the 
weekend. A strong upper level ridge will build into the southern 
Plains by the middle of next week and place the Ohio Valley and 
lower Great Lakes on its periphery and within a favored zone for 
increased impacts for convective clusters lasting potentially 
through next weekend and beyond in a very warm and unstable 
environment.

Friday Night through Sunday

The combination of a nearly stationary boundary and arrival of the 
aforementioned upper low will maintain periodic showers and 
thunderstorms into the weekend. The lack of substantial BL shear 
will result in a messy...multicellular convective mode dependent on 
instability focused especially through Saturday evening. Forecast 
soundings support the threat for heavy rain with PWATs increasing to 
near 2 inches resulting in a localized flood threat for areas 
getting repeated rounds of convection.. Mesoscale features and 
boundaries will serve as a primary impact where repeated areas of 
convection align while also aiding in scattered stronger pulse 
intensity convection in the absence of more substantial shear needed 
for organized severe weather. Gusty winds and small hail will be 
possible with any stronger cells as cores collapse. 

Model guidance continues to hint at potential for a lower 
convective risk Sunday as the boundary shifts to near or just 
south of the Ohio River with high pressure across the Great Lakes.
The front remains in close enough proximity though to warrant a 
continued mention of precip chances focused especially across the 
southeastern half of the forecast area. 

Humidity levels will rise noticeably with oppressive Tds peaking in 
the lower 70s at times over the weekend with a muggy feel to the 
air. Highs will largely remain in the upper 70s and lower 80s 
through the weekend with the increase clouds and convection. 

Sunday Night through Thursday

The remnant frontal boundary will remain over the region early next 
week with renewed potential for scattered convection as wave aloft 
ripple across the Ohio Valley. Eventually the upper level pattern 
will transition as broad ridging aloft expands into he southern 
Plains by the middle of next week. This will place the region onto 
the periphery of the ridge and in the primary zone for strong 
convective clusters to ride up and over the ridge from the northern 
Plains southeast into the Ohio Valley. It remains far too early to 
employ any detail into the development of this pattern...but 
confidence is growing in an increased threat for convective impacts 
for much of next week and through next weekend within a moist and 
unstable environment. Highs will rise into the mid and upper 80s 
with muggy conditions persisting.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 745 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR conditions developing within showers/storms Friday morning 
and persisting throughout the TAF period

Discussion:  

VFR conditions will continue for the rest of the evening and through 
tonight as high level cloud coverage steadily increases from the 
southwest. Radar imagery already shows a precipitation trying to 
work in aloft from the southwest, but due to such a dry atmospheric 
profile, nothing is reaching the ground or impacting surface 
conditions. Cigs will steadily lower through the night, but likely 
will not drop to MVFR levels until Friday afternoon. Showers 
increase from the southwest late tonight, with showers and 
thunderstorms near all TAF sites within the 13-17z timeframe. 
Convection will likely be at max coverage during the afternoon and 
evening hours. Still expecting some showers and storms tomorrow 
night, however coverage may be more isolated to scattered. Expect 
MVFR or lower cigs and vis under heavier showers and storms 
throughout tomorrow.

Winds remain out of the south less than 10 kts through the period. 
Winds may become more southeasterly by tomorrow evening.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...CM