National Weather Service Raw Text Product

769 
FXUS63 KFGF 122032
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
332 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues across southeastern North Dakota and west
  central Minnesota. There is a 90 percent chance for over 1
  inch of rain tonight into Friday afternoon south of the I-94
  corridor.

- Period of strong to severe storms next week in some locations. 
 
&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...Synopsis...

Near zonal flow with several weak shortwaves moving through
tonight and tomorrow, with one such shortwave near the SD border
this afternoon. We will stay on the cool side of the baroclinic
zone and instability will be fairly limited this afternoon and
again Friday. The weak shortwaves will continue over the top of
a ridge as it starts to build into the Plains for the weekend
and into Monday. A stronger trough coming in by Tuesday, with a
surface low moving through the southern Red River Valley. A
brief break on Wednesday with northwesterly flow and then
another ridge rider possible for Thursday.

...Rain tonight and tomorrow in southern counties...

Rain that has pushed into the southern CWA from SD so far has
ranged from a few hundredths to nearly half an inch. A little
bit of a break with rain getting more showery, but then the CAMs
bring in another round of showers and even few isolated
thunderstorms up from SD. Higher ends of the NBM bring up to 3
to 3.5 inches into our southern counties. Moisture transport is
good and there is 1.5 inches of pwats to work with, but
instability is pretty weak. Probabilities from the HREF for an 
inch or more are very high down along the SD border, but drop to
around 50 percent for over 2 inches and less than 10 percent 
for more than 3 inches. Given that the rain is expected over a
fairly large time frame from tonight into tomorrow, expect more
of a soaking rain than anything that would cause problems from
heavy rain.

...More active pattern in the extended...

Several shortwaves coming through the zonal flow or over top of
ridging. ECMWF EFI as some 50th to 70th percentiles for CAPE
above climatology, but mostly to our south and west. Can't rule
out convection this time of year, especially with the stronger
shortwaves coming through Monday and Tuesday. Machine learning,
both the Pangu and FengWu, have 5 to 15 percent probabilities
for severe impacts into our counties Sunday and continuing into
the upcoming work week. Details impossible to parse out at the
point, but definitely looks more active. 


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions with mainly mid and high clouds (and a bit of
smoke aloft) so far. Conditions will deteriorate as rain and
more moisture push towards the TAF sites later this afternoon
and overnight. Ceilings will drop to MVFR and then perhaps IFR
at some sites. Rain is most likely at KFAR and KBJI but have at
least VCSH at all airports. Some improvement by the end of the
period, but not all the way back to VFR for most locations.
Winds will increase out of the east, with some gusts up to
around 20 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR