National Weather Service Raw Text Product

516 
FXUS63 KIND 121640
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1240 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warm today

- Rain and storm chances increase for Friday and Saturday

- Slow moving storms will have a heavy rain and localized flood 
  threat Friday afternoon through Saturday

- Chances for rain will continue at times into next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Ridging aloft persisted across the region this morning even as 
cirrus increases ahead of the upper low across the southern Plains. 
13Z temperatures were generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The upper level ridging will gradually flatten through the course of 
the day as the upper low slowly approaches from the southwest. Still 
an abundance of dry air across the Ohio Valley and expect that to 
linger into the evening with the deeper Gulf moisture plume not 
advecting into the area until tonight and early Friday. Humidity 
levels continue to creep up and will be a bit higher than Wednesday. 
Low level thermals support highs largely in the mid 80s even as high 
clouds increase.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Quiet weather will continue through the day today, with surface high 
pressure hanging on to influence the area for a bit longer. 

Aloft, flow ahead of an approaching upper trough will bring 
increasing high clouds today. At the surface, south to southwest 
winds will bring in some low level moisture, which will keep 
dewpoints in the 60s.

Some elevated smoke will linger today, but with the increasing high 
clouds, it won't be as noticeable as sky cover.

Even with the high clouds moving in, temperatures will still peak in 
the middle 80s for most areas.

During the night tonight, moisture will continue to increase as the 
upper trough continues its slow approach from the southwest. This 
will thicken the cloud cover across central Indiana.

Some weak isentropic lift will move in as well overnight. This may 
produce a few showers over the area, so will have some low PoPs to 
account for this.

The clouds will help keep low temperatures in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Unsettled weather will continue at times throughout the long term 
period.

The upper trough will slowly push north and east into the weekend, 
moving over central Indiana on Saturday. The system will have 
plentiful moisture with it given good flow from the Gulf. 
Precipitable water values will approach 2 inches at times into the 
weekend.

Forcing from the system plus the moisture will lead to numerous to 
widespread showers at times, especially from Friday afternoon into 
Saturday afternoon. There will be enough instability for thunder as 
well. However, shear will be weak with this system. Thus, odds for 
organized severe look low into the weekend. That being said, 
isolated pulse strong to perhaps severe storms cannot be ruled out.

The main threat for Friday into Saturday is locally heavy rainfall 
and resultant flooding. The plentiful moisture plus slow moving 
storms will create this threat. In addition, on Saturday, some 
deformation from a surface wave may also come into play. Will 
continue to mention a heavy rain threat in outlooks.

The initial upper trough will move out slowly on Sunday, but now 
another upper system looks to follow it. This will keep chances for 
rain around through the early part of next week.

For mid-week, there is some uncertainty on how the upper pattern 
will end up. Another upper trough could move toward the area, or the 
area could be on the periphery of an upper ridge where upper energy 
could move through as well. Either way though the result will be 
some chance for rain. 

Highs will generally be in the 80s throughout the long term, with 
perhaps some upper 80s arriving by mid-week next week. Humid 
conditions look to persist through much of the period as well.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1240 PM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR conditions developing within showers/storms Friday morning 
and persisting throughout the day

Discussion: 

VFR conditions will continue for the rest of the day and through 
tonight as high level cloud coverage steadily increases from the 
southwest. Scattered diurnal cu is possible through early evening 
before diminishing. As deeper moisture advects into the region 
tonight...may see a few light showers but an increase in moisture 
and isentropic lift towards daybreak Friday will aid in an expansion 
of showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder into the morning 
hours with restrictions possible. MVFR ceilings will gradually 
encompass the terminals on Friday with additional showers and storms 
for the afternoon and evening.

Southwest winds less than 10kts this afternoon will become light and 
variable tonight into Friday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Ryan